497
FXUS61 KRLX 042349
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
649 PM EST THU DEC 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SYSTEM CROSSES BY TO OUR SOUTH, SPREADING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS
POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...
COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH
TONIGHT, WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS.
FOCUS ON FRIDAY THEN SHIFTS TO A SYSTEM THAT WILL SKIRT BY TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL CREATE A QUICK SHOT OF A HEAVY WET SNOW,
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY MORNING, BEFORE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AT LEAST
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, AND HAVE
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. WITH THE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES THAT HAVE OCCURRED
WITH THIS SYSTEM, WILL CONTINUE TO NEED TO BE MONITORED SHOULD THERE
BE ANY SHIFTS WITH PRECIPITATION FIELD, AS COULD CONCEIVABLY RECEIVE
GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NORTH OF ADVISORY AREA THAT CURRENTLY
PROJECTED.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...
THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS TO BE RATHER UNCERTAIN, BUT APPEARS TO BE
TRENDING DRIER AT LEAST FOR SATURDAY. COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES AT
TIMES SATURDAY FROM A PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO AFFECT THE AREA ON SUNDAY, PRIMARILY STARTING OUT
AS RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE AREA, BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...
EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY START OUT DRY ACROSS THE REGION, BUT
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN HEADING TOWARDS MID WEEK.
EACH SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ADDITIONAL WINTRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION, BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING, TRACK AND IMPACTS OF
COURSE REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 645 PM THURSDAY...
CURRENTLY SEEING A MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES THIS EVENING WITH
MVFR BEING COMMON FOR MOST, AND IFR OR LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS (BKW). VFR IS BEING REPORTED AT OUR NORTHERN MOST
SITES OF CKB AND PKB. MINOR IMPROVEMENTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT MVFR SEEMS TO BE THE MOST
PROBABLE FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
A DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE SNOW SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST
AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN ~05Z AND 15Z. IFR OR LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA AS A
RESULT, WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE (MOST LIKELY CKB, EKN, AND PKB).
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS FORECASTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF VA AND WV. THIS INCLUDES CRW AND BKW. BKW COULD SEE
BETWEEN 2" AND 4" OF SNOWFALL.
SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF BETWEEN ~16Z AND ~18Z FRIDAY, BUT MVFR
AND IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, BUT GUSTS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS TODAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE/TIMING OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR
OR WORSE RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST WITH MORE SITES
EXPERIENCING SNOW AND RESTRICTIONS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
SHOULD PRECIPITATION SHIFT FARTHER NORTHWARD.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EST 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS FRIDAY NIGHT PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ024>026-
033-034-515>518.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...SL/LTC
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...LTC
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