619
FXUS61 KRLX 050621
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
121 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING, BRUSHING
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 120 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
* ACCUMULATING SNOW TO IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR THIS EVENT
IS A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY PIVOTING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP SATURATION THROUGH THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (DGZ) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES THROUGH ROUGHLY 15Z, SUPPORTING EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCTION
RATES DESPITE RELATIVELY MODEST TOTAL QPF.
GIVEN THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH AND EAST. CONSEQUENTLY, THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE POCAHONTAS
COUNTY, WHERE BANDING FEATURES COULD YIELD LOCALIZED TOTALS
APPROACHING 3 TO 5 INCHES. EXTREME SOUTHERN KANAWHA COUNTY MAY
GET INTO THE 2 TO 3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS, BUT IMPACTS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE COUNTY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED,
PRECLUDING AN EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY THERE. NORTHERN AND
WESTERN COUNTIES REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE
SHIELD, LIKELY SEEING LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION AS THE LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15
DEGREES F EVIDENT IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK, WHICH WILL SHUNT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STEADIER
PRECIPITATION EASTWARD. HOWEVER, LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES PERSISTING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL, GENERALLY IN
THE 30S FOR THE LOWLANDS AND 20S FOR THE MOUNTAINS, SUPPRESSED
BY CLOUD COVER AND FRESH SNOWPACK IN THE SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 120 AM FRIDAY...
THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED BUT IMPACTS LOOK MINOR TO
START THE WEEKEND. A SECONDARY, MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WHILE FORCING IS WEAK, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST JUST ENOUGH SATURATION IN THE LOWEST LEVELS TO
SQUEEZE OUT FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACCUMULATIONS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE DGZ REMAINS LARGELY UNSATURATED AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS WITH ANYTHING THAT DOES FALL MELTING ON CONTACT.
BY SUNDAY, A MORE ORGANIZED CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR
PLAIN RAIN FOR THE LOWLANDS AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE LOW 40S DURING THE DAY, TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY SNOW. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY REMAINS THE LIMITING FACTOR, KEEPING QPF AND
SUBSEQUENT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 120 AM FRIDAY...
THE PROGRESSIVE, LONG-WAVE TROUGH-DOMINATED PATTERN PERSISTS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION AROUND TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. SIMILAR
TO THE SUNDAY SYSTEM, MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE LOWLANDS WITH LIGHT
SNOW RESTRICTED TO THE MOUNTAINS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY THURSDAY AS
GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF A STRONGER SYSTEM
EMERGING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF MOISTURE ARRIVAL RELATIVE TO THE RETREATING COLD
AIR, A PERIOD OF MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR,
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS FAVORED FOR COLD AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALOFT SUGGESTS A
TRANSITION TO RAIN WOULD BE THE DOMINANT MODE FOR THE BULK OF
THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 120 AM FRIDAY...
SNOW IS THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CATEGORY DRIVER THIS MORNING,
IMPACTING BKW PRIMARILY. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIFR/IFR IN
SNOW AND MIST THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 13Z-14Z BEFORE GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR. KCRW AND KEKN WILL SEE PERIODS OF IFR
VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID-MORNING, WITH CEILINGS
GENERALLY MAINTAINING MVFR.
TERMINALS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST (KHTS, KPKB, KCKB) WILL LARGELY
ESCAPE THE SNOW, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT BEFORE
DIPPING TO MVFR DURING THE DAY.
SNOW EXITS BY 18Z AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST, THOUGH MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS DECKS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR MOST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 5KTS OR
LESS, EXCEPT AT BKW WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL
GUST INTO THE TEENS THROUGH DAYBREAK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SNOW IMPACTS MAY VARY AT CRW AND EKN (THEY
WILL BE RIGHT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW).
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 12/05/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H L H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS LINGER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY MORNING
WITH STRATOCUMULUS INTERSECTS THE TERRAIN.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ024>026-033-034-515>518-523-524.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
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