113
FXUS61 KRLX 051849
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
149 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS, AND HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BRINGS
DRIER WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK, BRINGING MULTIPLE
CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY...
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TOWARD THE EAST COAST, SNOW HAS
LARGELY ENDED OVER THE CWA, THOUGH A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY LINGER. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA AND WILL ALLOW
SW'LY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND PUSH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID-40S IN THE SOUTH TO UPPER 30S IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO FOR THE LOWLANDS, AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 115 PM FRIDAY...
AFTER OUR BRIEF BREAK, THE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE, WITH OUR NEXT CLIPPER DISTURBANCE SLATED TO COME
THROUGH LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO MONDAY, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST THINKING WOULD HAVE LOWER ELEVATION TEMPS BE
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. THE
CLIPPER'S COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING,
BUT THE BEST OF THE COLD AIR WON'T START TO FILTER THROUGH
UNTIL AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE FORECAST
SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE AREA IS UNDER AN INCH, WITH SOME
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIP SHOULD
DISSIPATE OR DEPART TO THE EAST EARLY MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 135 PM FRIDAY...
ONCE THAT SYSTEM CLEARS OUT, TUESDAY LOOKS LIKELY TO BE DRY,
THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT A WEAK WAVE CROSSING THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BRINGING A TOUCH OF SNOW TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA, SO WE WORKED WITH NEIGHBORS TO PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. THE MAIN ATTENTION IN THIS PERIOD
WILL BE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, AS A POTENT SYSTEM
DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE INITIAL SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY, AND BASED ON THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS AND START AS SNOW OR A MIX
IN THE MOUNTAINS. ONCE THE POTENT FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING, TEMPERATURES WILL START TO DROP AND ALLOW
SOME SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. GUIDANCE IS STILL A BIT SPLIT
ON THE DETAILS OF ANY FOLLOW-ON DISTURBANCES AND THE IMPACT OF
POTENTIAL LAKE-ENHANCED MOISTURE, BUT IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE
THERE COULD AT LEAST BE PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY. AFTER BEING A BIT MILDER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN
THE 40S, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S
TO END THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ARE NOTED AROUND THE AREA, WITH
INTERMITTENT MVFR VISBY IN MIST OR LIGHT SNOW, AND SPORADIC IFR
CIGS, AS WELL. CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY
OR DEGRADE SLIGHTLY MORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
BEFORE DEVELOPING LIGHT SW'LY WINDS AND ENCROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE HELP TO LIFT CLOUD DECKS BACK TO VFR FOR MOST SITES BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS MAY FLUCTUATE FROM MVFR DOWN TO
IFR MORE OFTEN OR EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H L L H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L M M L M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS LINGER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY MORNING
WITH STRATOCUMULUS INTERSECTS THE TERRAIN.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...FK
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