648
FXUS61 KRLX 071420
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
920 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER TODAY. A DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
BRINGING A WINTRY MIX THAT CHANGES TO SNOW. A WARMER, BREEZIER
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 920 AM SUNDAY...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH A MAINLY DRY SUNDAY AHEAD
OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR TWO.
AS OF 634 AM SUNDAY...
ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, AND
REMOVED FZRA FROM FORECAST. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 202 AM SUNDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY, MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TODAY. A DECAYING LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES THIS
EVENING, PUSHING A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW CEILINGS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION, WHICH WILL
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S, AND LOWS IN THE
20S TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 202 AM SUNDAY...
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS, WILL GRADUALLY
END MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS WILL SEE ACCUMULATIONS UNDER 1
INCH, THOUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MAY SEE HIGH-END LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HIGHS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 30S IN THE LOWLANDS AND THE LOW 20S
IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. MONDAY NIGHT WILL TURN VERY COLD, WITH
LOWS DROPPING TO THE LOWER 20S IN FAR SOUTHERN WV AND SW VA, AND
INTO THE TEENS ACROSS SE OHIO AND NORTHERN WV. ANY REMAINING
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL END QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION.
ON TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL
CREATE SOUTHWEST BREEZES, WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
(40S IN THE LOWLANDS AND UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS).
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS LIQUID,
TRANSITIONING INTO A WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
A WARMER, BREEZIER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. EXPECT
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 202 AM SUNDAY...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY SEE A SLOPPY MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR MOST OF US, WITH ALL SNOW EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES IN THURSDAY NIGHT,
TURNING ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BY FRIDAY.
PREPARE FOR A DEEP FREEZE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 30S. BY THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES
DROP EVEN FURTHER, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR
THE LOWLANDS AND DIPPING INTO THE TEENS OR SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 634 AM SUNDAY...
WAA AT H850 AND A STRONG H250 JET AROUND 140 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MVFR STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
LIFTING TO VFR. THEREFORE, EXPECT MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AFFECTING PKB,
CKB AND EKN THIS MORNING, LIFTING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A
COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING, INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL PROVIDE FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY, TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS SNOW WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE IFR RESTRICTIONS ACROSS TERMINALS
DIRECTLY HIT BY SNOW SHOWERS, MORE PROBABLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS INCLUDING BKW. ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END BY 00Z TUESDAY.
NEAR CALM WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TODAY, AND LIGHT FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. THERE
MAY BE A WIND SHIFT, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF TRANSITION FROM MVFR TO VFR TODAY MAY
VARY FROM FORECAST. A DIP OF VISIBILITY INTO MVFR/IFR CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EST 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M H M M H H M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M H L L M M M H M M M M
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, AND THEN
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/GW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ
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