625
FXUS61 KRLX 072039
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
339 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. DRY TUESDAY.
A WARMER, BREEZIER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION BY MIDWEEK, COLDER THEREAFTER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR TWO
DOES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO 50 ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S IN
THE MOUNTAINS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE CROSSES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA,
BRINGING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT
TOWARDS DAWN ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN IN THE FORM OF
A RAIN/SNOW MIX, BUT STEADILY TURN TO MAINLY SNOW ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA BY DAWN ON MONDAY, THEN CONTINUE AS SUCH DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA, WITH MOST SNOWFALL ENDING NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET ON
MONDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER, WITH THE
HEAVIEST OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (1-4") CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VA, THE MOUNTAINS OF WV, ALONG WITH THE NEARBY
SURROUNDING LOWLANDS. GIVEN SUCH, HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 PM ON MONDAY FOR AREAS WHERE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHEST IN THESE AMOUNTS OCCURRING, WITH SOME IMPACTS
EXPECTED FOR BOTH THE MORNING/EVENING COMMUTES. THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED GIVEN
SOME VARIANCE IN GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, WITH A
POSSIBLE EXPANSION FURTHER NORTH OR SPS NEEDED LATER TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO THE FREEZING MARK,
WITH THE COLDEST ACROSS THE NORTH AND IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, WITH 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NNE/NE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN ANY CLEARING OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVE SNOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOWS ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED FOR THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S. A WARM FRONT WILL QUIETLY SHIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH RETURN FLOW ON TUESDAY
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WARMING APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES
COMPARED TO THAT OF MONDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WHILE UPPER 20S
AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY,
BREEZY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH MID 40S TO LOW 50S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, RESULTING IN RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN TREND MUCH COLDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY (~ 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY TO
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(25-35 MPH LOWLANDS, 35-45 MPH MOUNTAINS).
A NORTHERN STREAM PATTERN THEN CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES, PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES VIA WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES AND/OR LAKE
MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TIMING IS RATHER LOW AT
THIS POINT, WHILE CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARDS
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES IS MUCH HIGHER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND COULD BE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, WITH TEENS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 150 PM SUNDAY...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOWERING CIGS
(MVFR/IFR/LIFR), ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS
(SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER) AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX TRANSITIONS TO
MAINLY SNOW. SNOWFALL AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS
BEING EXPECTED AT BKW/CRW. A RETURN TO VFR COULD OCCUR ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH (CKB/PKB) BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS LOW.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME NNE/NE TONIGHT AND
REMAIN AS SUCH THROUGH THE END OF TAF PERIOD. BREEZES UP TO ~
15KTS COULD OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THROUGH THIS EVENING, MEDIUM THEREAFTER.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SNOW MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SNOW AND/OR LOW STRATUS INTO
MONDAY NIGHT SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER, AND THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY (AREA-WIDE) WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 PM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ015-024>028-033-034-515>524.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 PM EST MONDAY FOR
VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...GW
NEAR TERM...GW
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...GW
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