357
FXUS61 KRLX 080007
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
707 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY,
BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER. DRY TUESDAY. WARMER, WET MIDWEEK, COLDER THEREAFTER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 705 PM SUNDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND HEAVIER AND A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND
ALSO EVEN A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH THE SNOWSTORM MONDAY. THE SNOW
WILL IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE, ESPECIALLY IF ANY SNOW MELTS
INITIALLY ON ACCOUNT OF THE MILD WEATHER TODAY, AND THE EVENING
COMMUTE AS, EVEN AS THE SNOW ENDS, REFREEZING OF ANYTHING THAT
MELTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR TWO
DOES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO 50 ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S IN
THE MOUNTAINS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE CROSSES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA,
BRINGING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT
TOWARDS DAWN ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN IN THE FORM OF
A RAIN/SNOW MIX, BUT STEADILY TURN TO MAINLY SNOW ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA BY DAWN ON MONDAY, THEN CONTINUE AS SUCH DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA, WITH MOST SNOWFALL ENDING NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET ON
MONDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER, WITH THE
HEAVIEST OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (1-4") CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VA, THE MOUNTAINS OF WV, ALONG WITH THE NEARBY
SURROUNDING LOWLANDS. GIVEN SUCH, HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 PM ON MONDAY FOR AREAS WHERE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHEST IN THESE AMOUNTS OCCURRING, WITH SOME IMPACTS
EXPECTED FOR BOTH THE MORNING/EVENING COMMUTES. THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED GIVEN
SOME VARIANCE IN GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, WITH A
POSSIBLE EXPANSION FURTHER NORTH OR SPS NEEDED LATER TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO THE FREEZING MARK,
WITH THE COLDEST ACROSS THE NORTH AND IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, WITH 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NNE/NE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN ANY CLEARING OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVE SNOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOWS ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED FOR THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S. A WARM FRONT WILL QUIETLY SHIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH RETURN FLOW ON TUESDAY
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WARMING APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES
COMPARED TO THAT OF MONDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WHILE UPPER 20S
AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY,
BREEZY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH MID 40S TO LOW 50S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, RESULTING IN RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN TREND MUCH COLDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY (~ 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY TO
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(25-35 MPH LOWLANDS, 35-45 MPH MOUNTAINS).
A NORTHERN STREAM PATTERN THEN CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES, PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES VIA WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES AND/OR LAKE
MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TIMING IS RATHER LOW AT
THIS POINT, WHILE CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARDS
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES IS MUCH HIGHER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND COULD BE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, WITH TEENS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 705 PM SUNDAY...
A SNOWSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY,
WITH IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS AT LEAST ON VISIBILITY BKW 11-20Z,
CRW 14-18Z, AND EKN 16-19Z. TIMES ARE APPROXIMATE AND GIVE A
GENERAL TREND. ALL SITES WILL HAVE MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, AND HTS AND PERHAPS CKB MAY SEE MVFR
VISIBILITY IN SNOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD MONDAY.
NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL FRESHEN AND BECOME A BIT GUSTY
MONDAY MORNING, AND THEN DIMINISH AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
WEST FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT, AND THEN LIGHT NORTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RESTRICTIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH STRATOCUMULUS AND SNOW MAY VARY FROM THE
FORECAST, WITH LONGER AND LOWER RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
EST 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L H H L H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN STRATUS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS, AND TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IN A RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW MIX, AND
THEN IN MAINLY SNOW BY FRIDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 PM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ015-024>028-033-034-515>524.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 PM EST MONDAY FOR
VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/GW
NEAR TERM...TRM/GW
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...GW
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