657
FXUS61 KRLX 081735
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1235 PM EST MON DEC 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY, BRINGING SNOW,
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE OH RIVER. DRY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A CLIPPER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1225 PM MONDAY...
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS SHOW THE SNOW TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER THE SNOW TAPERS OFF, A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
NOTE: TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH THAT ANY
WATER ON ROADS WILL FREEZE. THIS COULD CAUSE HAZARDOUS ROAD
CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADS EVEN AFTER THE SNOW HAS ENDED.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 222 AM MONDAY...
KEY POINT:
* STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. WIND HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS, GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S LOWLANDS,
RANGING INTO THE MID 20S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH A GOOD
RETURN FLOW ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN STRONG GUSTY WINDS, AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO THAT OF
MONDAY. WIND HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 222 AM MONDAY...
A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
INITIAL RAIN THAT WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY,
REINFORCING THE COLD AIR MASS AND MAINTAINING CHANCES FOR
AREAWIDE SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME TIMING
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING A THIRD SHORTWAVE ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT
ALL SNOW.
A DISTINCT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
REACH THE MID 30S IN THE LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE LOWER 20S
IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR ARRIVES BY
SATURDAY, DROPPING HIGHS TO THE LOW-TO-MID 20S IN THE LOWLANDS,
AND INTO THE TEENS OR SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1225 PM MONDAY...
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON FROM EKN TO NORTH OF HTS AND SOUTHWARD WILL
CAUSE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTH OF THE SNOW,
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF, CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, WHERE
SOME IFR COULD REMAIN OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY MORNING, ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SNOW RESTRICTIONS ENDING COULD
VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EST 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M L M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M L M M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H M L L M H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY IN A RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW MIX, AND THEN IN MAINLY SNOW BY
FRIDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ005-006-013-014-016-018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ024-
025-028-033-034-518-520>524-526.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ015-
026-027-515>517-519.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
004.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/ARJ
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY
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