220
FXUS61 KRLX 121055
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
555 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
CLIPPER CROSSES THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY SNOW. MORE
SNOW LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER. VERY COLD
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 555 AM SATURDAY...
BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW WAS STREAKING ACROSS THE TUG FORK EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH A SECONDARY BAND FARTHER NORTH, CLOSER TO THE
HTS/CR CORRIDOR. GUIDANCE HAS LEVELED OFF FROM EARLIER TRENDS ON
LOWERING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS WE HEAD INTO THE HEIGHT OF THE
SNOWFALL EVENT, AS WE ALSO HEAD INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW IN PLACE AS ARE THIS MORNING.
AS OF 125 AM FRIDAY...
THE BIG CHANGE THIS FORECAST CYCLE IS FARTHER SOUTH/LESS WITH
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING.
MODELS, PARTICULARLY THE CAMS INCLUDING THE NAMNEST, ARE MOST
PRONOUNCED WITH THIS TREND, WITH THE GLOBALS AND THE PARENT
NAM12 LESS PRONOUNCED. WITH THESE GLOBALS AND PARENT NAM12
SOLUTIONS, RUSH HOUR TIMING WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING,
AND IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS, STILL OPTED TO KEEP THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW IN PLACE AS ARE THIS MORNING.
THE SNOW THIS MORNING WILL BE RATHER HEAVY/WET IN NATURE,
RESULTING IN A SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS. IT WILL MIX WITH, EVEN
CHANGE TO RAIN, ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING.
OTHERWISE, THE WEATHER REMAINS CLOUDY AND COLD WITH THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY, AND THEN LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
SLIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN LIGHT
UPSLOPE SNOW IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT, BUT THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW DIRECTION IS NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE.
TEMPERATURE RANGES REMAIN SMALL, WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND LOWS TONIGHT
GENERALLY IN THE 20S, EXCEPT AROUND 30 IN THE LOWLANDS NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE, AND IN THE MOUNTAINS, LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER, COMPARED WITH LOWS THIS MORNING, BUT SIMILAR
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
AFTER A CHILLY BUT TRANQUIL SATURDAY MORNING IN LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM, SAID NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT BRINGS ARCTIC AIR AND AN INCREASINGLY
FLUFFY SNOW FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY, AND THEN CROSSES
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH MAINLY ANAFRONT SNOW OVERSPREADING THE
AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND
CONTINUING SATURDAY NIGHT, AS THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH, WELL BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT, APPROACHES.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE LOWLANDS
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, BUT UPSLOPE SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, AND THEN ONLY
SLOWLY TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, WITH FLURRIES IN
THE FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW LEVELS IN
THE ARCTIC AIR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR SNOW ISSUED LAST EVENING REMAIN IN
EFFECT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA, FOR 3
TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, AND 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
ONGOING UPSLOPE SNOW THERE.
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE 30S TO MID 40S AMID A NORTH TO SOUTH
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SATURDAY, THEN DROP STEADILY BEHIND THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 10S BY SUNDAY
MORNING, SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL HOLD STEADY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, EXCEPT DROPPING
THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS WILL
MAKE FOR THE COLDEST DAYTIME PERIOD SO FAR THIS SEASON ON
SUNDAY, AND THEN THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH MONDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, NEAR OR
EVEN BELOW ZERO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT, GUSTING TO 35 TO 40 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE WIND CHILLS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE 10S BY SUNDAY MORNING, AND
NEGATIVE 20S LATE SUNDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL RISE BACK INTO THE
NEGATIVE 10S THERE EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AS WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH, AND TEMPERATURES LEVEL OFF. THIS WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE
COLD WEATHER HEADLINES DURING THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
MONDAY MORNING BRINGS THE NADIR OF THE ARCTIC COLD WAVE, AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE AREA, AND CUTS OFF THE
UPSLOPE FLOW, AND THE LAST OF THE FLURRIES IN THE ARCTIC AIR
GRADUALLY WANE. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HIGHS AND LOWS INCREASE IN CHUNKS THROUGH THURSDAY, AS
THE TROUGH-IN-THE-EAST AND RIDGE-IN-THE-WEST PATTERN GIVES WAY
TO THE NEXT MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE NATION. AFTER
DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THAT TROUGH BRINGS A COLD FRONT,
WITH RAIN, NOT SNOW, ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
LOWER ELEVATION HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN THE 20S
MONDAY, AND END UP IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY, WHILE LOWS RISE FROM
THE 10S TUESDAY MORNING TO THE 30S THURSDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY
CHILLY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY, WITH LOWS
ACTUALLY A BIT ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S, FRIDAY
AND EVEN SATURDAY MORNINGS, AMID A BRIEF SHOT OF POLAR AIR IN A
FAST ZONAL FLOW FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 555 AM FRIDAY...
MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH OVERNIGHT ON SNOWFALL THIS
MORNING, WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE
AREA. IFR SNOW TO START AT HTS AND CRW SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
VISIBILITY AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF AROUND 15Z. IFR SNOW IS LIKELY
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AT BKW, WITH 1/2 MILE IN
MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES, BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR VISIBILITY IN
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON, AND THEN VFR VISIBILITY AS THE SNOW TAPERS
OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THE
NORTHERN SITES PKB, CKB AND EKN.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE PREDOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST.
CEILINGS WILL STILL DROP CLOSE TO IFR IN SNOW AT CRW AND HTS,
AND REMAIN THERE FOR A WHILE AFTER THE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR IN SNOW AT BKW THIS MORNING, AROUND
14Z, AND REMAIN SO INTO THIS EVENING. BKW CEILING MAY BRIEFLY
IMPROVE TO LOW MVFR LATE TONIGHT, ONLY TO DROP BACK INTO IFR
OVERNIGHT. FARTHER NORTH, THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AT PKB, CKB AND EKN, BUT THEN TREND LOWER OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, MAINLY EAST ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY
TODAY, AND THEN LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING, AND
THEN LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES HTS, CRW AND BKW,
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SNOW, AND ASSOCIATED IFR RESTRICTIONS,
MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. AFTER THE SNOW, CEILINGS MAY
FLUCTUATE EITHER SIDE OF THE IFR/MVFR THRESHOLD THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR THE NORTHERN SITES PKB, CKB AND EKN,
MVFR/VFR CEILING TRANSITIONS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 12/12/25
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M L M M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M L L H M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H M H M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H H
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LOW STRATUS, ESPECIALLY BKW. AREA WIDE IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH SNOW.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ005>007-013>015-024>026-033-034-515>518.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WVZ006>011-014>020-027>032-039-040.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR WVZ519>523-525-526.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ083-086-087.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...TRM
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