125
FXUS61 KRLX 122217
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
517 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH A
STRONG CLIPPER. BITTER COLD SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF AN ARCTIC FRONT, THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 135 PM FRIDAY...
SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE EXIT OF THE
INITIAL CLIPPER. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE AREA
FOR TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY OUT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SNOW RATIOS WILL GENERALLY START
OUT SOMEWHAT LOW, 12:1 TO 14:1, BUT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION, GENERALLY INCREASING TO 18:1 TO 21:1 BY THEN. THIS WILL
ALLOW SNOW TO EASILY PILE UP/ACCUMULATE. THE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO INCLUDE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
MOST AREAS, EXCEPT ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTH WHERE LESSER AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED. THE MOUNTAINS IN PARTICULAR WILL SEE DECENT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AS A PERIOD OF NW UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES
BEYOND THE NEAR TERM PERIOD, AND IT'S POSSIBLE, AMOUNTS MAY NEED
TO BE INCREASED WITH SUBSEQUENT PACKAGES. HAVE THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN ZONES WARNINGS GOING INTO SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
UPSLOPE, BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME DEPENDING ON WHAT
HAPPENS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 500 PM FRIDAY...
HAVE ISSUED AN EXTREME COLD WATCH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES FROM 4 AM SUNDAY UNTIL 10 AM
MONDAY FOR WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 25 BELOW ZERO. THE COLDEST OF
WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGES, WHERE WIND GUSTS
OF 35-45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATION ZONES
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.
AS OF 140 PM FRIDAY...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
FETCH SETS UP OFF THE GREAT LAKES, AND A NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH CONTINUED ACCUMULATING
SNOWS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, PARTICULARLY WITH THE
OVERALL FLUFFY NATURE TO THE SNOW. MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN
FOR SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING SUNDAY INTO THE TEENS AREA WIDE, SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS, COMBINED WITH WINDS, WILL RESULT
IN WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, AND
WILL NECESSITATE COLD WEATHER HEADLINES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS,
WHICH MAY BE LUMPED INTO ANY WINTER STORM HEADLINES ISSUED.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN. QUITE COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY MORNING, WITH SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AREA
WIDE, BELOW 0 IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 140 PM FRIDAY...
EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER, WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO MODERATE TOWARDS MID WEEK, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 140 PM FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA BEHIND A DEPARTING SYSTEM, HOWEVER, A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR
IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 21Z THROUGH 04Z, BEFORE WIDESPREAD MVFR
TAKES HOLD AGAIN.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW.
BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD, HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD AREA
WIDE, WITH WORSENING CONDITIONS.
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTH CENTRAL WV
AFTER 10-12Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF ANY VFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAY DIFFER FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
EST 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H M L
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H M M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY IN HEAVY SNOW AND LOW
CEILINGS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR WVZ005-006-013-024>026-515>518-524.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
WVZ007>011-014>020-027>032-519-520.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ039-040-521>523-525-526.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR OHZ087.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
OHZ066-067-075-076-083>086.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SL/GW
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...SL/GW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...SL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page