856
FXUS61 KRLX 130355
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1055 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH A
STRONG CLIPPER. BITTER COLD SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF AN ARCTIC FRONT, THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1040 PM FRIDAY...
AREAS OF FOG HAVE QUICKLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST
VA AND THE SOUTHERN WV COALFIELDS. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
20S TO LOW 30S, HAVE ISSUED AN SPS FOR THESE LOCATIONS TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK SPOTS VIA FREEZING FOG / BLACK ICE.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT
GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST CONUS, WITH THE
NEXT ALBERTA CLIPPER QUICKLY DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA.
AS OF 740 PM FRIDAY...
A QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WINTER
STORM. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AMID LINGERING PATCHES
OF LOW STRATUS, AS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM
OVERHEAD FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY UPDATE TO THE
FORECAST THIS EVENING WAS TO ADD IN THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
/ FREEZING FOG ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST VA AND THE
SOUTHERN WV COALFIELDS WHERE SOME SNOWMELT OCCURRED THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN SOME STAGNANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 135 PM FRIDAY...
SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE EXIT OF THE
INITIAL CLIPPER. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE AREA
FOR TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY OUT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SNOW RATIOS WILL GENERALLY START
OUT SOMEWHAT LOW, 12:1 TO 14:1, BUT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION, GENERALLY INCREASING TO 18:1 TO 21:1 BY THEN. THIS WILL
ALLOW SNOW TO EASILY PILE UP/ACCUMULATE. THE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO INCLUDE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
MOST AREAS, EXCEPT ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTH WHERE LESSER AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED. THE MOUNTAINS IN PARTICULAR WILL SEE DECENT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AS A PERIOD OF NW UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES
BEYOND THE NEAR TERM PERIOD, AND IT'S POSSIBLE, AMOUNTS MAY NEED
TO BE INCREASED WITH SUBSEQUENT PACKAGES. HAVE THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN ZONES WARNINGS GOING INTO SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
UPSLOPE, BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME DEPENDING ON WHAT
HAPPENS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 500 PM FRIDAY...
HAVE ISSUED AN EXTREME COLD WATCH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES FROM 4 AM SUNDAY UNTIL 10 AM
MONDAY FOR WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 25 BELOW ZERO. THE COLDEST OF
WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGES, WHERE WIND GUSTS
OF 35-45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATION ZONES
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.
AS OF 140 PM FRIDAY...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
FETCH SETS UP OFF THE GREAT LAKES, AND A NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH CONTINUED ACCUMULATING
SNOWS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, PARTICULARLY WITH THE
OVERALL FLUFFY NATURE TO THE SNOW. MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN
FOR SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING SUNDAY INTO THE TEENS AREA WIDE, SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS, COMBINED WITH WINDS, WILL RESULT
IN WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, AND
WILL NECESSITATE COLD WEATHER HEADLINES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS,
WHICH MAY BE LUMPED INTO ANY WINTER STORM HEADLINES ISSUED.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN. QUITE COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY MORNING, WITH SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AREA
WIDE, BELOW 0 IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 140 PM FRIDAY...
EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER, WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO MODERATE TOWARDS MID WEEK, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 705 PM FRIDAY...
A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR ACROSS THE AREA AT PRESENT WITH SOME
PATCHES OF MVFR STRATUS MEANDERING AROUND IN AND NEAR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, ALONG WITH ACROSS THE MID-OHIO VALLEY.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
OF MORE MVFR SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD BY LATE TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS ONLY MEDIUM. A BIT OF IFR IN/NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST OVERNIGHT, WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF PATCHY
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA AND THE SOUTHERN WV
COALFIELDS WHERE SOME SNOWMELT OCCURRED TODAY.
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING SNOW TO THE FAR NORTHERN TERMINALS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR IFR/LIFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT CKB/EKN/PKB. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE PROGGED AT BKW/CRW/HTS THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD,
BUT SNOW WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THESE AREAS ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
IN THE MID TEENS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WV ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY, SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS. WSW SURFACE FLOW
EARLY ON SATURDAY WILL VEER TO W/WNW BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF LOWERING CIGS OVERNIGHT MAY BE
SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. BRIEF IFR COULD OCCUR AT
BKW/CRW/EKN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 12/13/25
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M L M L H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L M H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H L H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH HEAVY SNOW AND LOW CIGS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SNOW SHOWERS
AND LOW CIGS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR WVZ005-006-013-024>026-515>518-524.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
WVZ007>011-014>020-027>032-519-520.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ039-040-521>523-525-526.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR OHZ087.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
OHZ066-067-075-076-083>086.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SL/GW
NEAR TERM...SL/GW
SHORT TERM...SL/GW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...GW
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