847
FXUS61 KRLX 130718
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
218 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY WITH A
STRONG CLIPPER. BITTER COLD SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOLLOWING AN
ARCTIC FRONT, THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...
ARCTIC AIR WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW ARRIVE LATER TODAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE ARCTIC FRONT LEADING THE CHARGE WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING, AND ARRIVE IN
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING, AND THEN CROSS TONIGHT. AN
INCREASINGLY FLUFFY SNOW ARRIVES WITH THE FRONT, OR EVEN JUST
AHEAD OF IT, BUT THE BULK OF THE SNOW OCCURS IN ANAFRONT FASHION
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH A FLAT WAVE AS THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH LAGS BEHIND. SNOW RATIOS START OUT MODEST, AROUND
15 TO ONE THIS AFTERNOON, NUT THEN LOWER TO AS LOW AS 25 TO 1 BY
DAWN SUNDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS UPGRADED FROM THE WATCHES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS AND 6 TO 10 INCHES IN AND JUST WEST OF
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, TO 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE
HOISTED FARTHER SOUTH FOR 1 TO 4 INCHES, BUT NOT INCLUDING FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHERE AROUND AN INCH OR
LESS IS EXPECTED AS THE SNOW BAND, NOT QUITE THE WIDTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA, TRAVERSE.
THE SNOW TAPERS OFF BY DAWN SUNDAY MORNING IN THE LOWLANDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, BUT UPSLOPE SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN AND
JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, AND THEN
ONLY SLOWLY TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, WITH FLURRIES
IN THE FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW LEVELS
IN THE ARCTIC AIR EVEN INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT DOES NOT TAP MUCH WARM
AIR OR MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT DOES BUOY LOWLAND
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THEN
CRASH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT, AND WILL BE IN THE 10S BY SUNDAY MORNING, SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OF
15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES, WIND CHILLS
DROP WELL INTO THE 10S BELOW ZERO BY SUNDAY MORNING, AND THE
COLD WEATHER WATCH ISSUED FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEGINS AT 4 AM THERE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 500 PM FRIDAY...
HAVE ISSUED AN EXTREME COLD WATCH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES FROM 4 AM SUNDAY UNTIL 10 AM
MONDAY FOR WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 25 BELOW ZERO. THE COLDEST OF
WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGES, WHERE WIND GUSTS
OF 35-45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATION ZONES
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.
AS OF 140 PM FRIDAY...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
FETCH SETS UP OFF THE GREAT LAKES, AND A NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH CONTINUED ACCUMULATING
SNOWS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, PARTICULARLY WITH THE
OVERALL FLUFFY NATURE TO THE SNOW. MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN
FOR SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING SUNDAY INTO THE TEENS AREA WIDE, SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS, COMBINED WITH WINDS, WILL RESULT
IN WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, AND
WILL NECESSITATE COLD WEATHER HEADLINES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS,
WHICH MAY BE LUMPED INTO ANY WINTER STORM HEADLINES ISSUED.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN. QUITE COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY MORNING, WITH SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AREA
WIDE, BELOW 0 IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 140 PM FRIDAY...
EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER, WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO MODERATE TOWARDS MID WEEK, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW IMPACT THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
CEILINGS WERE ALREADY IN THE IFR TO LOW MVFR RANGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN SITES BKW/CRW/HTS, AND FALLING INTO THE MVFR RANGE
NORTH CKB/EKN/PKB, WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING,
AND WILL DROP TO IFR OR LOWER ALL SITES IN/AHEAD OF THE SNOW
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR VISIBILITY IN SNOW IS 20Z PKB, 21Z CKB,
22Z EKN, AND AROUND 02Z CRW AND HTS. IFR SNOW MAY NOT REACH BKW
UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, 06Z SUNDAY, WHEN THE SNOW MAY
START TO LET UP AT PKB.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING, AND THEN LIGHT NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE ONSET OF
IFR SNOW IS JUST AHEAD OF OR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE NEAR OR AFTER THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY BECOMES LIGHT TO
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT ALOFT TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF LOWERING CIGS EARLY TRIOS
MORNING MAY VARY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT..
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 12/13/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H M M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H M M M M H H M H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH SNOW HEAVY AT TIMES. IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR WVZ005-006-013-024>026-515>518-524.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR WVZ007>011-014>020-027>032-519-520.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST
MONDAY FOR WVZ039-040-521>523-525-526.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR OHZ087.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>086.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL/GW
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL/GW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM
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