565
FXUS61 KRLX 140047
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
747 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW PREVAILS INTO SUNDAY WITH A STRONG
CLIPPER. BITTER COLD SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOLLOWING AN ARCTIC
FRONT, THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...
OVERALL, THE FORECAST IS REASONABLY ON TRACK FOR THIS SNOWSTORM,
WITH A PERSISTENT BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW LOCATED OVER
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA, GRADUALLY SAGGING SOUTH.
DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE, BUT DID TWEAK
POPS AND QPF THROUGH 12Z/7AM BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES
GUIDANCE. THE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP, AS WELL AS THE
18Z 3KM NAM, HAVE ALL BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A BAND OF
HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN NOW AND
9PM, AND SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CHARLESTON METRO
BETWEEN 9PM AND MIDNIGHT OR 1AM. THIS LINES UP WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. INCORPORATING THIS RECENT HI-RES
DATA ALLOWED US TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ONSET OF
PRECIP ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND BOOST THE QPF DURING THE
EXPECTED PASSAGE OF THIS SNOW BAND ACROSS THE REGION. IT DID
BOOST FORECAST SNOW A TOUCH FOR SOME SPOTS, BUT DID NOT MAKE ANY
BIG CHANGES TO THE SNOW FORECAST.
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ARRIVES TODAY, USHERING IN
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.
* WINTER STORM WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW TOTALS DISCUSSED
IN DETAIL BELOW.
* COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES/EXTREME COLD WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST OHIO
TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS DISCUSSED IN DETAIL BELOW.
WHILE GLOOMY AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER STARTS OFF THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST FOR TODAY HERE IN THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA,
ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY GET UNDERWAY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
A CLIPPER SYSTEM RACES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. RADAR TRENDS AT THE TIME OF WRITING DEPICTED THE
FIRST SIGNS OF SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON, AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A WEST TO EAST FASHION THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DRIFTING FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO MORE OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BREAKDOWN OF ANTICIPATED
SNOWFALL IS AS FOLLOWS:
FROM NOW UNTIL 7 PM: THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO SOUTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTH-CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA, WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF SHOWERS STRETCHING DOWN
TOWARDS THE KANAWHA VALLEY AND NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. THE BEST
ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY BE CONTAINED TO OUR
OHIO COUNTIES, WHERE SNOW TOTALS RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 3 INCHES
ARE PROJECTED TO FALL. NORTH-CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA MAY PICK UP
THEIR FIRST INCH OF SNOW DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH BETTER
ACCUMULATIONS SLATED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, A LIGHT COATING MAY BEGIN TO FORM FOR LOCATIONS
STEMMING FROM ASHLAND, KENTUCKY TO SUTTON, WEST VIRGINIA. LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED YET FOR THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA
DURING THIS TIME.
FROM 7 PM TO 1 AM: HEAVY SNOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE VAST MAJORITY
OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME RANGE, WITH ACCUMULATIONS
INCREASING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. A HEALTHY PLUME OF SNOW
CUTS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA, WHICH IS SLATED TO
PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF ROUTE
50, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR
THE I-64 CORRIDOR, 1 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL
DURING THIS PERIOD OF TIME, AND EVEN LESSER DOWN IN THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS.
FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM: UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ACCOMPANYING THIS WINTER
SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, CHURNING OUT LESS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND BECOMING MORE UPSLOPE DRIVEN FOR THE CONCLUDING HOURS OF
THIS EVENT. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS, WHILE AN INCH OR LESS
WILL ROUND OUT THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THE LOWLANDS.
WINDS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALSO PICK UP IN INTENSITY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW.
UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY SUNDAY BEFORE LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE BECOMES CUT OFF DUE TO
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE.
ALL IN ALL, OVERALL SNOW TOTALS HAVE NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES. A NARROW
STRIP OF FORECAST SNOW TOTALS RANGING BETWEEN 6 TO 8 INCHES IS
PROJECTED TO FALL FROM SOUTHEAST OHIO THROUGH PARKERSBURG,
CLARKSBURG, AND ELKINS. FOR OUR CENTRAL LOWLANDS INTO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, LESSER AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 TO 6 INCHES ARE
PROGGED, AND EVEN LESS DOWN IN THE COALFIELDS AS WE STRAY
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE HEART OF THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM.
TOUGHEST CHALLENGE WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S FORECAST WAS THE TIGHT
GRADIENT THAT COULD TRANSPIRE NEAR SNOWSHOE WITH THIS EVENT,
WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS COULD STRUGGLE TO REACH MORE THAN 3 TO 4
INCHES. TYPICALLY THIS IS A SPOT IN THE FORECAST AREA THAT
ACHIEVES THE MOST SNOWFALL WITH RECENT WEATHER EVENTS, BUT
GIVEN THE TRACK OF THIS STORM AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS
ARE PROJECTED TO FALL, WE'LL BE SINGING A DIFFERENT TUNE FOR OUR
HIGHEST ELEVATION POINT THIS TIME AROUND.
NO CHANGES TO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WERE MADE WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. ALL INHERITED WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 1 PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION TO THE ACCUMULATED SNOWFALL PROJECTED WITH THIS
ENCROACHING WINTER STORM, A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR IS PROGGED TO
BRING FRIGID COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. COUPLED WITH BREEZY TO BRISK WINDS, WIND CHILLS WILL DIP
BELOW ZERO FOR SEVERAL SPOTS IN THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT.
STARTING WITH SOUTHEAST OHIO, OPTED TO EXPAND ON A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY ALREADY HOISTED FOR PERRY COUNTY, NOW INCLUDING JACKSON
AND VINTON COUNTIES TO HIGHLIGHT VERY COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS
7 BELOW FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL MIDDAY. THE OTHER AREA OF
NOTE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE STRETCH OF COLD WIND CHILLS
ANTICIPATED FROM THE NORTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS DOWN INTO
SOUTHEASTERN FOOTHILLS, DROPPING AS LOW AS 13 BELOW IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND 22 BELOW FOR OUR HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGE ZONES.
THESE COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES/EXTREME COLD WARNINGS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS
LITTLE TO NO IMPROVEMENTS TO WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY, AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FRIGID HEADING INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...
ARCTIC AIR REMAINS TRIUMPHANT OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE POLAR FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND CHILLS RANGING
BETWEEN 14 BELOW AND 25 BELOW ARE FORECAST TO HUG THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS, MAINTAINING THE NEED FOR COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES AND EXTREME COLD WARNINGS FOR OUR MOUNTAIN AND
FOOTHILL ZONES THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.
AFTER THE PARADE OF WINTER STORMS OVER THE PAST WEEK, THE
WEATHER TURNS QUIET FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SAILS
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO IMPROVE OUR FRIGID
CONDITIONS, ALBEIT SLOW TO START, AS MANY COUNTIES IN THE
FORECAST AREA WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MODERATING CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT MORE ON TUESDAY,
WHEN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE IN THE 30S
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE HEADING INTO MIDWEEK IN THE
MIDST OF ONSHORE FLOW AND TRANSIENT RIDGING ALOFT. WHILE
STARTING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD OFF DRY, THE WEATHER
GROWS ACTIVE ONCE MORE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
A DEVELOPING SYSTEM PIERCING THROUGH THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY
AROUND MIDWEEK WILL TAKE AIM FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE PLACE AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION, THIS EVENT IS PROGGED TO INITIALLY BRING RAIN TO
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY. A
TRANSITION TO MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TAKES SHAPE OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES TUMBLE BELOW
FREEZING, BUT LOOKS TO WRAP UP ALTOGETHER DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
AFTER A MILD THURSDAY IN THE 50S/60S ACROSS THE AREA,
TEMPERATURES TUMBLE BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S/40S FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...
WE HAVE A MIX OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SITES, WITH MVFR FOR HTS AND CRW AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY LOWER, AND
VFR STILL AT BKW FOR THE MOMENT BEFORE THE LOWER CLOUD DECK
ARRIVES THERE. GENERALLY EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT, WITH AT LEAST IFR CLOUD DECKS COMMON WHERE IT IS SNOWING,
AND ANYWHERE FROM LOW MVFR TO LIFR VISIBILITY IN SNOW.
THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RACE ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z OR SO, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NW'LY AS IT PASSES.
THE INCREASING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY LAG THE FRONT BY A
FEW HOURS, BUT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z, GUSTS SHOULD START TO PICK
UP EVERYWHERE, THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
AS THE WINDS PICK UP AND COLD AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
LATER TONIGHT, CEILINGS MAY START TO IMPROVE TO MVFR IN SPOTS,
EVEN AS SNOW MAY PERSIST A WHILE LONGER. HOWEVER, THE SNOW MAY
START TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE, WHICH IS REFLECTED IN
THE TAFS, SO IT MAY NOT BE SNOWING ALL THE TIME AT A SITE LATER
TONIGHT, AND/OR VSBY/CIGS MAY BOUNCE SOME. BY 09Z, THE SNOW MAY
BE CONTAINED MOSTLY SOUTHEAST OF A CKB/CRW LINE, AND BY 12Z SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS, AND POSSIBLY LOWER
ELEVATION PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL WV. MOST AREAS LOOK TO IMPROVE
TO VFR CEILINGS LATER SUNDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IMPROVEMENT OF IFR CONDITIONS AS SNOW
SHOWERS DEPART LATE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING MAY VARY FROM
THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H L M M M M M M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H L M M M M M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H M M M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY L M M M L M M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M M M H H
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN STRATUS, AND PERHAPS IFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ005-006-
013-024>026-515>518-524.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ007>011-
014>020-027>032-519-520.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ032>034-039-040-515>522-524-525.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ039-040-
521>523-525-526.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ523-526.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ087.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>086.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ066-
083-084.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...05
NEAR TERM...05/FK
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...FK
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