582
FXUS61 KRLX 141423
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
923 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
CLIPPER WITH SNOW EXITS FIRST THING THIS MORNING. BITTER COLD
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY FOLLOWING AS AN ARCTIC HIGH CROSSES, THEN
MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. COLD FRONT THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 920 AM SUNDAY...
TRIMMED MORE OF THE WESTERN FLANK OF OUR WINTER HEADLINES WHERE
HEAVY SNOW HAS NOW CONCLUDED FOR THIS EVENT. ADDITIONAL LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA TODAY
BEFORE FLOW SHIFTS MORE WESTERLY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
NOW GROWING MORE CONFINED TO THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS AS
EXPECTED, SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR MORE
HEADLINE CHANGES AHEAD OF THE OVERALL EXPIRATION PROGGED FOR 1
PM THIS AFTERNOON.
AS OF 515 AM SUNDAY...
TRIMMED THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER WITH
THE SNOWSTORM HAVING ENDED THERE. THE SNOWSTORM OVERALL WAS
WINDING DOWN, WITH ONE LAST UPSLOPE-ENHANCED BAND MOVING INTO
THE MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL HAD OTHERWISE DEVOLVED INTO LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM USHERING IN ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
* WINTER STORM WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
* COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES/EXTREME COLD WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST OHIO
TONIGHT.
A SNOWSTORM WAS IN PROGRESS ACROSS ALL BUT FAR SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING, WITH FAR
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA JUST GETTING INTO THE ACT, AND
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS WINDING DOWN.
THE SNOWSTORM IS IN RESPONSE TO A FLAT WAVE IN THE WAKE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY, AND WILL SCOOT
OUT OF THE AREA BY DAWN THIS MORNING. THE TRACK AND NATURE OF
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLAT WAVE ARE SUCH THAT THE
DURATION AND, AS A RESULT, TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS, TAPER OFF AS
ONE GOES SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, AND THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES CONTINUE AS
WARNINGS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA, AND
ADVISORIES FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AND WITH NOTHING
FOR FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE MOST RECENT SNOWFALL REPORTS INDICATE 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW
SO FAR ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND 1 TO
3 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH NO
REPORTS FROM SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA YET.
THE SNOW WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING, BEFORE
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. FLURRIES
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TODAY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
OHIO RIVER, WITH TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN IN THE FAVORED DENDRITIC
ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH RANGE IN THE LOW CLOUDS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEGINS TO
CUT OFF THE UPSLOPE FLOW, WITH ENOUGH DRY AIR TO PROMOTE
PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL STILL HANG TOUGH ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WERE STEADILY DROPPING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
IN THE POST-FRONTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA, AND WILL GO NOWHERE TODAY AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC
AIR COMES RIGHT OVERHEAD. THE PARTIAL CLEARING AND DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TONIGHT, NEAR OR EVEN BELOW ZERO MOVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR RADIATIVE COOLING WITH
MID AND HIGH CLOUD ALSO ENTERING THE PICTURE.
THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILL INDICES RANGING FROM AS LOW AS THE LOWER 20S BELOW ZERO
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, TO THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER SIDE BUT
MOSTLY ABOVE ZERO FOR THE LOWLANDS, LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT, COLD WEATHER WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHEST
RIDGES, WITH COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE REST OF THE
MOUNTAINS, AND JUST WEST OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THIS MORNING
FOR PERRY COUNTY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 335 AM SUNDAY...
A 1043 MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING
CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAKER, 1037 MB HIGH MONDAY
MORNING. AFTER SETTING UP THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE SEASON SO
FAR, TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO THE 20S TO AROUND 30 FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS, AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH AND ALLOWS A RETURN LIGHT WEST
TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP. A MUCH MORE STOUT
WARMING TAKES PLACE IN THE MID LEVELS.
ONLY SOME OF THIS WARMING STARTS TO CONVERT TO THE SURFACE
TUESDAY AS AN INVERSION PERSISTS PER STOUT MID-LEVEL WARMING,
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO THE 10S FOR LOWS TUESDAY MORNING
AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH INTERVENING
HIGHS TUESDAY FROM THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TO THE AROUND FREEZING OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 335 AM SUNDAY...
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, DESPITE LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AND RAIN THURSDAY. THE RAIN IS DUE TO A
COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM A LARGE, INTENSE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM, ONLY MODESTLY COLD
POLAR-PACIFIC AIR FOLLOWS AMID A LARGE SCALE ZONAL PATTERN
ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW,
AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT, BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN NEXT WEEKEND, MOST LIKELY ON SUNDAY.
HIGHS MODERATE TO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND 50S ON THURSDAY, THEN
DIP TO THE 40S BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY, THEN BACK UP TO THE
50S AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 39S THURSDAY MORNING, 20S
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, THEN UP TO THE MID 30S TO AROUND
40 FOR NEXT SUNDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 515 AM SUNDAY...
THE IFR SNOW WAS OVER, EXCEPT FOR EKN, WHICH WILL HAVE MVFR TO
IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING TODAY. CKB CAN HAVE MVFR
VISIBILITY IN SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES TODAY, MAINLY THIS MORNING.
ELSEWHERE, THERE MAY BE FLURRIES, BUT NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED. VISIBILITY WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR TONIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY MVFR, WITH IFR AT TIMES THIS
MORNING AT BKW AND POSSIBLE EKN. CEILINGS WILL LIFT ABOVE 3 KFT
AND BREAK UP AT CRW AND HTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING,
AT PKB TONIGHT, AND PERHAPS EVENTUALLY AT BKW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE BRISK NORTHWEST WITH LOWLAND GUSTS OF 15 TO
20 KTS TODAY, DIMINISHING TONIGHT, AND 25 TO 30 KTS MOUNTAINS
TODAY DECREASING TO 15 TO 25 KTS TONIGHT. SURFACE FLOW WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL VEER TO LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: GUSTY WINDS AND CEILINGS WILL FLUCTUATE
TODAY, AS MAY AND VISIBILITY IN AND JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
IMPROVEMENT ON CEILINGS TONIGHT COULD VARY. CEILINGS COULD AT
LEAST BRIEFLY LOWER BACK DOWN TO IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EST 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L M M H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H M L H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M H M H H H H L M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H M L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ005-013-024>026-515>518-524.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ032>034-
039-040-515>522-524-525.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ015-
027-028-030>032-519-520.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ039-040-
521>523-525-526.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ066-083-084.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ105.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...05/TRM
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...TRM
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