876
FXUS61 KRLX 141840
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
140 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END TONIGHT. BITTER COLD TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY FOLLOWING AS AN ARCTIC HIGH CROSSES, THEN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. COLD FRONT THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 140 PM SUNDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES GRADUALLY COME TO AN END TODAY AS
SNOW SHOWERS TAPER DOWN.
* ARCTIC AIR PREVAILS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT, PROMOTING
EXTREME COLD CONDITIONS.
SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODEL H85 STREAMLINES THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUE TO SHOW A NORTHWESTERLY PUSH OF LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE
PRESSING INTO THE AREA. THIS HAS LED TO OCCASIONAL
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS NOW THAT THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD FILLED WITH HEAVY SNOW HAS PUSHED
OFFSHORE.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON TO CAPTURE THE LAST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THESE STREAMER SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
EVENING, CUTTING OFF LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE AND BRINGING AN END
TO WINTER WEATHER. OTHERWISE, THE DEPARTING WINTER STORM LEAVES
BEHIND A DECENT SNOWPACK ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH MANY LOCATIONS
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TERRITORIES REPORTING ANYWHERE FROM 6 TO 10
INCHES OF SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES THAT SHOW NO SIGNS
OF BUDGING TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PERUSE
OVERHEAD. BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND RESULTING WIND CHILLS
WILL YIELD DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT,
WHERE COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES/EXTREME COLD WARNINGS REMAIN
FIRMLY IN PLACE. EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL, AND SLICK SPOTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ON ROADS AND SIDEWALKS TODAY, TONIGHT, AND FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
WINDS WILL ALSO TAPER DOWN WITH ITS ARRIVAL, WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY AID
IN IMPROVING EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 140 PM SUNDAY...
AFTER A WEEK OF EPISODIC WINTER WEATHER, THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY QUIET DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AMID SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND BUILDING RIDGING ALOFT. THESE FEATURES WILL
SERVE UP CLEARING SKIES, BENIGN WEATHER, AND MODERATE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE WORK WEEK. WHILE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO REACT TO THIS MODERATION, WE'LL SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS RISE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM MONDAY TO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPIRE AROUND MIDWEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INVITES MOISTURE UP INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING DISTURBANCE. CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT ENOUGH DRY AIR PARKED OVER THE REGION WILL HELP MITIGATE
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THIS FORECAST PERIOD, BUT WILL BECOME MORE
PREVALENT IN THE LONG TERM.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 140 PM SUNDAY...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE MODERATING TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE
HEART OF THE COUNTRY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE 50S
TO POSSIBLY EVEN LOW 60S IN THE LOWLANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD, CURRENTLY SLATED TO ARRIVE BY
THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENING COMMUTE. GIVEN HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS SHOWERS ENCROACH, FORECAST WEATHER TYPE
IS PREDOMINANTLY RAIN HEADING INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PIVOT OVER THE CANADIAN/UNITED
STATES BORDER, WITH A TAIL PIERCING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DOWN
TOWARDS THE GULF COAST REPRESENTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, USHERING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN ITS
WAKE. LINGERING PRECIPITATION MAY THEN TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW
FRIDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD STIR UP SOME TROUBLE SPOTS FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO QUICKLY DASH OFFSHORE
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES IN FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM SUNDAY...
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MIDST OF A
DEPARTING WINTER STORM. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL STREAM
INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WINDS BECOME MORE
WESTERLY. UNTIL THEN, PERIODICAL DROPS IN VISIBILITIES WILL
PREVAIL. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY MVFR TO LOW-END VFR
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ONCE SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH TONIGHT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS, DRY
WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR OVERNIGHT IN THE LOWLANDS, BUT
HOVER FURTHER INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR OUR MOUNTAIN TERMINALS.
SHOULD SEE A STRONG PUSH FOR CLEARING SKIES AFTER 15Z MONDAY
MORNING AMID BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL BACK OUT OF A MORE
WESTERLY FASHION THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE ENCROACHING SURFACE
HIGH. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY VARY THROUGH THIS
EVENING DUE TO THE LAST BATCH OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS.
CEILINGS MAY ALSO BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT THAN CURRENT
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H M H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H L H M M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M H H M L M L H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ032>034-
039-040-515>522-524-525.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ039-040-
521>523-525-526.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...05
NEAR TERM...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...05
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