500
FXUS61 KRLX 142332
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
632 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END TONIGHT. BITTER COLD TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY FOLLOWING AS AN ARCTIC HIGH CROSSES, THEN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. COLD FRONT THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...
OPTED TO END THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ALL REMAINING
COUNTIES AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR AS SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. SATELLITE TRENDS ALSO SHOW LINGERING STRATUS ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS HAVE THINNED OUT AND UNLIKELY
PRODUCING ENOUGH SNOWFALL TO JUSTIFY A NEED FOR LINGERING
HEADLINES.
COLD WEATHER HEADLINES REMAIN INTACT ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WIND CHILLS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BOTTOM OUT AS LOW AS 16 BELOW ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND AS LOW
AS 24 BELOW FOR OUR HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGES.
AS OF 140 PM SUNDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES GRADUALLY COME TO AN END TODAY AS
SNOW SHOWERS TAPER DOWN.
* ARCTIC AIR PREVAILS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT, PROMOTING
EXTREME COLD CONDITIONS.
SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODEL H85 STREAMLINES THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUE TO SHOW A NORTHWESTERLY PUSH OF LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE
PRESSING INTO THE AREA. THIS HAS LED TO OCCASIONAL
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS NOW THAT THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD FILLED WITH HEAVY SNOW HAS PUSHED
OFFSHORE.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON TO CAPTURE THE LAST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THESE STREAMER SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
EVENING, CUTTING OFF LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE AND BRINGING AN END
TO WINTER WEATHER. OTHERWISE, THE DEPARTING WINTER STORM LEAVES
BEHIND A DECENT SNOWPACK ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH MANY LOCATIONS
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TERRITORIES REPORTING ANYWHERE FROM 6 TO 10
INCHES OF SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES THAT SHOW NO SIGNS
OF BUDGING TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PERUSE
OVERHEAD. BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND RESULTING WIND CHILLS
WILL YIELD DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT,
WHERE COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES/EXTREME COLD WARNINGS REMAIN
FIRMLY IN PLACE. EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL, AND SLICK SPOTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ON ROADS AND SIDEWALKS TODAY, TONIGHT, AND FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
WINDS WILL ALSO TAPER DOWN WITH ITS ARRIVAL, WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY AID
IN IMPROVING EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 140 PM SUNDAY...
AFTER A WEEK OF EPISODIC WINTER WEATHER, THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY QUIET DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AMID SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND BUILDING RIDGING ALOFT. THESE FEATURES WILL
SERVE UP CLEARING SKIES, BENIGN WEATHER, AND MODERATE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE WORK WEEK. WHILE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO REACT TO THIS MODERATION, WE'LL SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS RISE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM MONDAY TO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPIRE AROUND MIDWEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INVITES MOISTURE UP INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING DISTURBANCE. CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT ENOUGH DRY AIR PARKED OVER THE REGION WILL HELP MITIGATE
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THIS FORECAST PERIOD, BUT WILL BECOME MORE
PREVALENT IN THE LONG TERM.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 140 PM SUNDAY...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE MODERATING TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE
HEART OF THE COUNTRY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE 50S
TO POSSIBLY EVEN LOW 60S IN THE LOWLANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD, CURRENTLY SLATED TO ARRIVE BY
THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENING COMMUTE. GIVEN HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS SHOWERS ENCROACH, FORECAST WEATHER TYPE
IS PREDOMINANTLY RAIN HEADING INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PIVOT OVER THE CANADIAN/UNITED
STATES BORDER, WITH A TAIL PIERCING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DOWN
TOWARDS THE GULF COAST REPRESENTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, USHERING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN ITS
WAKE. LINGERING PRECIPITATION MAY THEN TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW
FRIDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD STIR UP SOME TROUBLE SPOTS FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO QUICKLY DASH OFFSHORE
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES IN FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF
A WINTER STORM THAT SWEPT THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE TIME
OF WRITING, ALL TERMINALS BUT KBKW HAVE RETURNED TO VFR
CEILINGS. SATELLITE SHOWS A NEW PLUME OF LOWERED CEILINGS
STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL LOWLANDS,
BUT THE EXPECTATION IS CONDITIONS WILL NOW REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY
VFR WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MVFR.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY, PROMOTING THE
FIRST QUIET WEATHER DAY IN OVER A WEEK. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH
WITH ITS ARRIVAL, BECOMING LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAY YIELD BRIEF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H M M M M L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H L H M H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H M M H H H H H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN ON THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ032>034-
039-040-515>522-524-525.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...05
NEAR TERM...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...05
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