319
FXUS61 KRLX 150606
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
106 AM EST MON DEC 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
BITTER COLD THROUGH TODAY AS AN ARCTIC HIGH CROSSES, THEN
MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. COLD FRONT THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX ON FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...
COLD AND DRY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. SOME CLOUD
COVERAGE INFILTRATES THE AREA TODAY COURTESY OF LAKE EFFECT
MOISTURE BRINGING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN AND NO LIFT, FLURRIES WILL
BE UNLIKELY FROM THIS ACTIVITY. A FEW FLAKES COULD VERY WELL BE
OBSERVED POTENTIALLY ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD JUST BE FROM THE CLOUD
COVERAGE THAT IS SUPPOSED TO HANG AROUND TODAY.
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING TO THE POINT WHERE COLD
WEATHER HEADLINES COULD PROBABLY BE TAKEN DOWN BY 12Z AS OPPOSED
TO LATE MORNING AS WIND CHILLS FALL BELOW CRITERIA.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING AREA-WIDE, BUT MAY
CROSS THAT THRESHOLD DOWN IN THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND OUR
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...
THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN QUIET AMID HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BEGINNING TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY FOR THE
FIRST TIME SINCE THE PAST WINTER STORM EVENT WE JUST HAD. THE
BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN TURNS SLIGHTLY ACTIVE IN THE NEXT PERIOD.
FOR WEDNESDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THE MOISTURE FLUX TO
WHERE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS DUE TO A SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THE DAYTIME. HOWEVER, WITH THE DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN
WILL HELP MITIGATE ANY MORE CHANCES AND WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT
FOR ACTIVE WEATHER TO TAKE HOLD THROUGH THE REST OF THIS PERIOD
AND INTO THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A POTENT SYSTEM
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH
BY FRIDAY.
FRIDAY WILL HAVE CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX AS THE COLD AIR
INFILTRATES VERY QUICKLY INTO THE AREA AS THE FAST MOVING
FEATURE EXITS BY FRIDAY MORNING.
BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH
AN ALL RAIN REGIME AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE FROM COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TO A MODEST WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...
FOR THE MOST PART, THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE VFR DOMINATING INTO
TUESDAY. SOME CLOUD COVERAGE OFF THE GREAT LAKES IS INFILTRATING
INTO CKB/EKN THIS MORNING WITH SOME INSTANCES OF MVFR CIGS,
HOWEVER THESE CLOUDS WILL LIFT GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
BECOMING VFR DOMINATE BY LATE MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 12/15/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H L H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H M M M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ032>034-039-040-515>522-524-525.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ523-
526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-
004.
SYNOPSIS...JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
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