505
FXUS61 KRLX 151634
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1134 AM EST MON DEC 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
BITTER COLD THROUGH TODAY AS AN ARCTIC HIGH CROSSES, THEN
MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. COLD FRONT THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX ON FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1130 AM MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NEAR TERM PERIOD, WITH DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE DURING THE PERIOD, AS HEIGHTS BUILD AND A MORE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. TONIGHT WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN, WITH
LINGERING SNOW PACK AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL DIP
INTO THE TEENS, WITH SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS, ONCE
AGAIN.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1130 AM MONDAY...
NOT AS COLD TUESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND CLOUD COVER INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COUPLE OF PASSING SHORTWAVES FOR WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
IS LIMITED WITH THESE, SO DON'T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION, BUT COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF LOWER CLOUDS TAKE HOLD,
MAYBE EVEN SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ON THURSDAY
OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL HELP TO PUMP HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR INTO THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD PRIMARILY FALL AS RAIN THURSDAY/THURSDAY
EVENING, BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1130 AM MONDAY...
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY SEE LITTLE DIURNAL RISE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM, WITH MOISTURE FETCH OFF THE
LAKES AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH MILDER CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD,
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE HINTS OF ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 500 AM MONDAY...
FOR THE MOST PART, THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE VFR DOMINATING INTO
TUESDAY. SOME CLOUD COVERAGE OFF THE GREAT LAKES IS INFILTRATING
INTO CKB/EKN THIS MORNING WITH SOME INSTANCES OF MVFR CIGS,
HOWEVER THESE CLOUDS WILL LIFT GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
BECOMING VFR DOMINATE BY LATE MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page