206
FXUS61 KRLX 161024
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
524 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. COLD FRONT THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 100 AM TUESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1) QUIET WEATHER.
CLEARING SKIES AMID HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING ALMOST BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AS HEIGHTS BUILD A MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE PLACE KEEPING
THE AREA QUIET FOR NOW.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 AM TUESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1) SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY.
2) SYSTEM PROGGED FOR THURSDAY BRINGING RAIN.
3) COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY WITH A WINTRY MIX.
4) HIGH PRESSURE STARTING THE WEEKEND.
A PASSING SHORT WAVE TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY MAY BRING SOME
CHANCES FOR RAIN TO OUR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, HOWEVER
CENTRAL GUIDANCE TOOK OUT THESE PROBABILITIES, THEREFORE THE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY FOR NOW. CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE AND WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FORECAST TO
IMPACT THE AREA ON THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THE
MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE SOUTH AND STRENGTHEN LOW LEVEL WINDS
WHICH WILL AID IN THIS SOLUTION. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
BRING SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS, AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH OR
MORE, AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING IN SHARP COLDER AIR TO PROMOTE
A MORE WINTRY MIX AND THEN JUST SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FRONT. THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL
SNOW TO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS COURTESY OF WRAP AROUND FLOW
BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS COULD PROMOTE
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE SYSTEM KICKS OUT AT A FAST RATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A DIVE POST FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT WILL
REBOUND FOR THE NEXT PERIOD AS A WARMING TREND BACK TO ABOVE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TAKES PLACE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 100 AM TUESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1) WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.
2) HIGH PRESSURE INTO SUNDAY.
3) MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER SYSTEM TO BRING RAIN ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
MILDER CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE HINTS OF
ANOTHER SYSTEM BY SUNDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE
REGION AMID A WARMING TREND BRINGING UP TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 530 AM TUESDAY...
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AMID HIGH PRESSURE. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL COME INTO PLAY AT ALL SITES LATE TONIGHT.
IF SURFACE WIND IS STRONG ENOUGH SOME SITES MAY HAVE THE LLWS
NEGATED. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY THAT WILL BRING IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY PROMOTE SOME MVFR CIGS STARTING AS
EARLY AS MID MORNING ALONG THE MOUNTAIN SITES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 12/16/25
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN ON THURSDAY AND RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
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