496
FXUS61 KRLX 161717
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1217 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. COLD FRONT THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1214 PM TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS, AND SOMEWHAT MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST. NOT AS COLD
TONIGHT WITH INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE IN WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK INTO THE AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT AND ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE AN INCREASE/LOWERING OF
CLOUDS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1215 PM TUESDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ON THURSDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM,
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HELP TO PUMP HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION SHOULD PRIMARILY FALL AS
RAIN THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING, BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THERE
COULD EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON THURSDAY, BUT OVERALL, BETTER
CHANCES EXIST SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
SEE LITTLE DIURNAL RISE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA, AND A
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE PATTERN TAKES HOLD WITH MOISTURE FETCH OFF THE
GREAT LAKES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1215 PM TUESDAY...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH MILDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD. THE TAIL END OF THE
EXTENDED IS LESS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT, BUT THERE ARE HINTS OF
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK,
ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THESE WILL LARGELY NOT CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO OUR AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1215 PM TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH, AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY COULD CREATE LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CEILINGS AND BRIEF SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL COME INTO PLAY AT ALL
SITES LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS, BECOMING GUSTY, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE
TEENS AREA WIDE, TO TEENS TO MID 20 KTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN ON THURSDAY AND RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...SL
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