460
FXUS61 KRLX 171733
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1233 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...
WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY, WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
AND RELAXING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TO THE AREA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ON THURSDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM,
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HELP TO PUMP HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR INTO THE REGION, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AREA
WIDE AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TAKES HOLD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
PRIMARILY FALL AS RAIN THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING, BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON
THURSDAY, BUT OVERALL, BETTER CHANCES EXIST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY SEE LITTLE DIURNAL RISE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. IN ADDITION, THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE COURTESY OF THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA. IN FACT,
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS UPPER
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA, AND A FAVORABLE UPSLOPE PATTERN TAKES
HOLD WITH MOISTURE FETCH OFF THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH MILDER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD. TEMPS ON SATURDAY SHOULD GENERALLY WARM INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE BACK
SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE TAIL END OF THE EXTENDED IS LESS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT, BUT
THERE ARE HINTS OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THESE WILL LARGELY NOT CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO OUR AREA.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...
OTHER THAN AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH ROUGHLY 21Z, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA
WIDE FOR THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20 KT RANGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 22Z,
WHEN WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
LLWS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT, GENERALLY AFTER 09Z,
AND LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST 14-16Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO AREA WIDE VFR MAY
VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...SL
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