435
FXUS61 KRLX 180102
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
802 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST AT THIS
POINT. SOME HI-RES MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVING OVER THE MID-OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING - DID NOT INCLUDE THAT NOW, BUT MAY DO SO IF FURTHER
RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW IT.
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...
WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY, WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
AND RELAXING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TO THE AREA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ON THURSDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM,
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HELP TO PUMP HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR INTO THE REGION, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AREA
WIDE AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TAKES HOLD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
PRIMARILY FALL AS RAIN THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING, BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON
THURSDAY, BUT OVERALL, BETTER CHANCES EXIST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY SEE LITTLE DIURNAL RISE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. IN ADDITION, THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE COURTESY OF THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA. IN FACT,
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS UPPER
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA, AND A FAVORABLE UPSLOPE PATTERN TAKES
HOLD WITH MOISTURE FETCH OFF THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH MILDER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD. TEMPS ON SATURDAY SHOULD GENERALLY WARM INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE BACK
SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE TAIL END OF THE EXTENDED IS LESS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT, BUT
THERE ARE HINTS OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THESE WILL LARGELY NOT CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO OUR AREA.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 720 PM WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST AT MOST
SITES, WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME MFVR CEILINGS AT BKW
LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SHOWERS MOVE IN AND S'LY WINDS PUSH
LOWERING CLOUDS UP AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, CALM TO
GENTLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TOWARDS AND AFTER 12Z, WITH
GUSTS OF 15-20KTS COMMON IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME, WITH GUSTS
OVER 20KTS BECOMING COMMON AFTER 18Z. THERE COULD BE ONE BOUT OF
LLWS AFFECTING SOME OF THE AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z, AND ANOTHER
AND POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF LLWS APPEARS POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE PERIOD AS S'LY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE FIRST ROUND OF
LLWS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK/SL
NEAR TERM...FK/SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FK
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