980
FXUS61 KRLX 181032
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
532 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY. COLD FRONT TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN POSSIBLY SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL PUMP IN WARM
MOIST AIR ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO AROUND THE 60
DEGREE MARK TODAY. WITH THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WINDS SHOULD NOT BE TO STRONG ACROSS THE LOWLANDS,
HOWEVER IN THE MOUNTAINS STRONG WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE HIGHER RIDGES AND PEAKS OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THIS
TRIGGERED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WHERE WINDS
COLD GET INTO 50-55 MPH FROM FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY EVENING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
INTENSE COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS TOOK PLACE AND DEPENDING
ON WHERE GUIDANCE LANDS THE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FORECAST
PACKAGE WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT THE ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE
ELEVATED TO A WIND WARNING, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
STRONGER ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.
THE CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE BY THIS MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AT FIRST DUE TO A TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN FEATURE,
THE COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL THEN ADD TO CHANCES TO THE WESTERN
FLANKS BY AS EARLY AS THE LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AND FILL IN FOR THE EVENING AND
NIGHT TIME HOURS.
AS TEMPERATURES DROP A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN, EVEN SLEET, COULD
COME TO FRUITION AS THE COLD FRONT KICKS OUT. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BUT WILL
LIKELY MELT VERY QUICKLY AND NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH ON THE GROUND.
THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AS WELL MAYBE
UP TO AN INCH OR TWO, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR VERY LITTLE IMPACTS
IN THE PEAKS AND RIDGES.
HI-RES MODELS HAVE A NICE LINE COMING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
POSSIBLY SOME MODERATE RAIN TO HEAVY ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO, HOWEVER GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF ON THIS SOLUTION DRAMATICALLY TO WHERE THE
PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST
LARGELY DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WARM ISOTHERMAL AIR
ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO DROP BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN ACTIVITY. THEN BY MID MORNING
THEY WILL DROP EVEN QUICKER TO WHERE BY LATE MORNING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING OR BELOW, ESPECIALLY ALONG
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
AS THE SYSTEM KICKS OUT BY FRIDAY MORNING WRAP AROUND FLOW WILL
BE ABLE TO ADD MORE SNOW TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND POSSIBLY
SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
CUT OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...
FOR FRIDAY, NON-DIURANL ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PALACE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH FOR THE DAYTIME AND THEN DROP
SLIGHTLY AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP RIGHT BACK TO ABOVE SEASONABLE FOR
SATURDAY TO THE 50S.
CENTRAL GUIDANCE HAS KEPT OUR AREA DRY UNTIL SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES MAKES THEIR AWAY ACROSS SOME OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
MORNING, HOWEVER GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PULLING BACK ON THIS
SOLUTION. SINCE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE THE AREA UNDER ZONAL
FLOW THIS MAY BE LIKELY A DRY FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
OUR AREA WHICH MAY RESULT IN A SHOWER OR TWO BUT THIS MOISTURE
STARVED FRONT WILL UNLIKELY CAUSE ANY IMPACTS TO THE AREA IF IT
DOES COME TO FRUITION.
GOING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK MODELS ARE TRYING TO SPIN UP SOME
ACTIVITY BUT AS FAR AS IMPACTS ARE CONCERN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE, HOWEVER DUE TO INCONSISTENT MODELS
RUNS, CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN OR WINTER PRECIPITATION IS VERY LOW
AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH CENTRAL GUIDANCE HITS HARD ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AS WELL AS THURSDAY, WITH POSSIBLY A WET
CHRISTMAS DAY WITH RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...
DUE TO THE MODEL INCONSISTENCY THIS PERIOD COULD GO EITHER WAY
FROM JUST CHANCES FOR RAIN OR TO WHERE A FEW DISTURBANCES SPIN
UP SOME ACTIVITY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. WITH THE LACK OF
CONFIDENCE IN MODELS ELECTED TO GO WITH CENTRAL GUIDANCE WHICH
HAS HIGH END CHANCES FOR THE PERIOD, HOWEVER THIS FAR OUT IT IS
HARD TO SAY WHAT DIRECTION THE WEATHER WILL GO AT THIS POINT.
THE MODELS DO PLACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WHICH COULD
STICK AROUND AND CAUSE THE WEATHER TO BE SETTLED FOR THIS
PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 530 AM THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN MVFR
CIGS COME INTO PLAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT FIRST. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT EXITS BY LATE MORNING
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL UNDER WRAP AROUND FLOW AND SNOW ACTIVITY
WHICH SHOULD BE MINIMAL IN ACCUMULATIONS AND SHOULD NOT PROMOTE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS TO VIS OR RUNWAY CONDITIONS ALBEIT
RUNWAYS MAY BE WET FROM RAIN ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FAST BY THE MORNING SO THEREFORE SOME
SLICK SPOTS COULD BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH STRONG WIND ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THINK THINGS WILL DRY OUT FAST TO WHERE IMPACTS WILL
BE LARGELY MINIMAL TO NIL.
THERE COULD BE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AFFECTING SOME OF THE
AREA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER POTENTIALLY MORE
WIDESPREAD ROUND OF LLWS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION WHICH MAY NOT SUSTAIN WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. IF IT STAYS GUSTING AT THE SURFACE THEN WIND SHEAR WILL
BE NEGATED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH OVER TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN TAKE A WIND SHIFT
FROM OUR OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE START OF MVFR CIGS MAY VARY SLIGHTLY
FROM FORECAST DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
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