290
FXUS61 KRLX 050606
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
106 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY INTO TUESDAY. COLD THIS MORNING, THEN WARMER STARTING MONDAY
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. ROUNDS OF RAIN
EXPECTED STARTING MID WEEK WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 105 AM MONDAY...
MOSTLY DRY AND MILD FOR THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD DUE TO INFLUENCE
FROM HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DOCKED TO OUR NORTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. IT WILL BE VERY COLD THIS MORNING, BUT THE LAST VERY COLD
MORNING FOR THE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS WITH LOW 20S AND TEENS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL BE
COLDEST THIS MORNING WITH LOCATIONS LIKE ELKINS DROPPING INTO
THE MID TO LOWER TEENS.
DEW POINTS ARE VERY LOW UNDER A DRY, CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WITH
MOST ASOS SITES REPORTING TEENS AND LOW 20S. THERE IS THE CHANCE
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG/FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING
ACROSS THIS AREA TOO, AS BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND CALM WINDS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP FASTER AND FILL IN DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS..
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PICKS UP AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES DURING THE
DAY TODAY LEADING TO MODERATING, MILD TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL JUMP INTO THE 50S IN THE LOWLANDS WITH SOME AREAS
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF 60 DEGREES. THE MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT 40S
AND 50S TODAY.
DEW POINTS WILL BE ON DRIER SIDE, LEADING TO RH PERCENTAGES IN
THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE WARMEST SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
SHOW DEW POINTS IMPROVING TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
BUT TYPICALLY THIS DOES NOT OCCUR AS STARK AS THE MODELS ANTICIPATE.
OPTED TO GO SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR AFTERNOON DEW POINTS AS A RESULT.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH OUT THE DAY, BUT WILL CONTINUE
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL OUR NEXT ANTICIPATED SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT WEAK NORTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MIDWEST. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO CROSS WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY, BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
(20-50%) AND TUESDAY NIGHT (30-70%) AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
LIGHT SIDE, GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH, PERHAPS UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN/NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. DRY
WEATHER QUICKLY RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A BUBBLE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ~ 5 DEGREES WARMER. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WHILE
MID 40S TO MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS, QUICKLY ERODING ANY LINGERING
SNOWPACK. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ~ 5 DEGREES COOLER FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY,
WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE DECREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...
A RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS THE NEXT SYSTEM, A COLORADO LOW, QUICKLY CUTS TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH SOME GUIDANCE
EVEN HAVING A SECONDARY (DEEPER) LOW DEVELOPING AND CROSSING
NORTH OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WHILE THE EXACT
DETAILS CONTINUE TO BE REFINED, THIS OVERALL PATTERN FAVORS OUR
FORECAST AREA BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH RAIN SHOWERS AREA-
WIDE (EVEN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS). AN INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
ADDITIONAL RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES TOWARDS/THROUGH THE REGION. GIVEN A
DECENT SOUTHWEST SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF, RAIN
COULD BE MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY AT TIMES (PRIMARILY
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT). THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF DEVELOPING HYDRO ISSUES, ESPECIALLY IF THE
FRONT WERE TO BECOME MORE SO STATIONARY WITH AN ADDITIONAL WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS LOW AT PRESENT. COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND RESULTANT LOW/MID LEVEL
STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S.
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE COLDER FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MID 40S TO LOW 50S IN THE
LOWLANDS, WHILE LOW/MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1240 AM MONDAY...
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY, BUT SCT
TO BKN UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD WITH
DISTURBANCES TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. THAT SAID, VFR IS EXPECTED
FOR MOST SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF CKB AND EKN WHERE
SOME MVFR OR IFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD ENOUGH THAT PATCHY
FREEZING FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE AT THESE SITES, BUT COVERAGE AND
LONGEVITY IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE, VFR EXPECTED TO RESUME BY ~15Z IF FOG OR LOW CEILINGS
OCCUR. SCT TO FEW HIGH-LEVEL (20K TO 25K FEET AGL) CLOUDS WILL
BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING AND EVENING HOURS. SE'RLY
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING. WINDS PICK BACK UP,
BREEZY AT TIMES, DURING THE DAY WITH A SW'RLY SHIFT EXPECTED.
AMD NOT SKED REMAINS ON THE EKN TAF GIVEN CONTINUED MISSING
OBSERVATIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TONIGHT WITH FOG, HIGH OTHERWISE.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG OR LOW STATUS MAY NOT OCCUR AT CKB OR
EKN DUE TO TRANSIENT CLOUD COVER.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 01/05/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EST 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M L L L L L L L H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOW STRATUS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY IN/NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. IFR IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH RAIN.
EQUIPMENT
OBSERVATIONS AT KEKN REMAIN MISSING DUE TO A SERVICE OUTAGE.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...LTC
EQUIPMENT...LTC
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