941
FXUS61 KRLX 051041
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
541 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY INTO TUESDAY. COLD THIS MORNING, THEN WARMER STARTING MONDAY
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. ROUNDS OF RAIN
EXPECTED STARTING MID WEEK WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 105 AM MONDAY...
MOSTLY DRY AND MILD FOR THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD DUE TO INFLUENCE
FROM HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DOCKED TO OUR NORTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. IT WILL BE VERY COLD THIS MORNING, BUT THE LAST VERY COLD
MORNING FOR THE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS WITH LOW 20S AND TEENS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL BE
COLDEST THIS MORNING WITH LOCATIONS LIKE ELKINS DROPPING INTO
THE MID TO LOWER TEENS.
DEW POINTS ARE VERY LOW UNDER A DRY, CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WITH
MOST ASOS SITES REPORTING TEENS AND LOW 20S. THERE IS THE CHANCE
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG/FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING
ACROSS THIS AREA TOO, AS BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND CALM WINDS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP FASTER AND FILL IN DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS..
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PICKS UP AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES TODAY
LEADING TO MODERATING, MILD TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
JUMP INTO THE 50S IN THE LOWLANDS WITH SOME AREAS KNOCKING ON
THE DOOR OF 60 DEGREES. THE MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT 40S AND 50S
TODAY.
DEW POINTS WILL BE ON DRIER SIDE, LEADING TO RH PERCENTAGES IN
THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE WARMEST SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
SHOW DEW POINTS IMPROVING TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
BUT TYPICALLY THIS DOES NOT OCCUR AS STARK AS THE MODELS ANTICIPATE.
OPTED TO GO SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR AFTERNOON DEW POINTS AS A RESULT.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH OUT THE DAY, BUT WILL CONTINUE
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL OUR NEXT ANTICIPATED SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...
DRY CONDITIONS LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BUT A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT THROUGH OUR AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN BY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT, BUT THIS WILL
BE MORE OF A WETTING RAIN FOR MOST AS OPPOSED TO A THOROUGH
SOAKER. QPF GUIDANCE HAS A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH FOR OUR AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGHER AMOUNTS
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
MOUNTAINS WITH THE COLD FRONT CROSSING LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT RAINFALL WILL BE
WINDING DOWN WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
DRIER WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY
OUTSIDE OF SOME POCKETS OF DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHEASTERN
MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE MILD AND ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE
LOWLANDS SEEING 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE MOUNTAINS OF COURSE BEING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH 40S TO MID 50S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
WILL BE COMMON IN THE LOWLANDS WITH THE MOUNTAINS STAYING DOWN
IN THE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...
DRIER STINT EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING A MORE SOAKING RAIN TO THE AREA TO END
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK
WITH THE LOWLANDS RISING INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN SOME LOCATIONS.
THESE TEMPERATURES OF COURSE ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL EMERGE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWING A WEST TO EAST SPREAD AND WILL GRADUALLY
FILL IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL
BE RATHER WET WITH POPS UPWARDS OF 70-90% SPANNING THE AREA FOR
THIS PERIOD. RAINFALL WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER END OF THE
RANGE BEING MORE PROBABLE ACROSS THE MID-OHIO VALLEY AND THE
MOUNTAINS WITH IN OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS
PERIOD FOR WATER ISSUES, PARTICULARLY FROM SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES THROUGH. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN SATURDAY NIGHT, SO A
FLASH FREEZE IS LIKELY. A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY,
MOSTLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. STILL TOO FAR OUT FOR ACCURATE
ACCUMULATION FORECASTS, BUT AMOUNTS DO LOOK LIGHT AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL TO A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 540 AM MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TODAY, BUT SCT TO BKN UPPER-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD WITH A STALLED
FRONT TO OUR NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT EKN DUE TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS UNTIL
~14-15Z.
VFR EXPECTED TO RESUME BY ~15Z AFTER ANY FOG OR LOW CEILINGS
LIFT AND SCATTER. SCT TO FEW HIGH-LEVEL (20K TO 25K FEET AGL)
CLOUDS WILL BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MORNING AND IN THE
EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM EARLY THIS MORNING,
BUT WILL PICK BACK UP AFTER ~12Z OUT OF THE SW AND WILL BE
BREEZY AT TIMES INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL BE BETWEEN 10 AND
20 KNOTS.
AMD NOT SKED REMAINS ON THE EKN TAF GIVEN CONTINUED MISSING
OBSERVATIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT EKN MAY
VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 01/05/26
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOW STRATUS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY IN/NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. IFR IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH RAIN.
EQUIPMENT
OBSERVATIONS AT KEKN REMAIN MISSING DUE TO A SERVICE OUTAGE.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...LTC
EQUIPMENT...LTC
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