484
FXUS61 KRLX 051718
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1218 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT SHOWERS
TUESDAY WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE. ROUNDS OF RAIN EXPECTED
STARTING LATE WEEK WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1210 PM MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED TO OUR EAST, WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH, WITH WARMER TEMPS TUESDAY
MORNING COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, EVENTUALLY SPREADING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE
AREA, EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EVEN WITH THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS, HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MAY HIT THE
LOWER 60S FOR SOME LOWLAND LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1210 PM MONDAY...
SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS, AND PERHAPS AREAS OF -DZ WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD AGAIN, WITH A DRY,
AND GRADUALLY WARMING PERIOD, PARTICULARLY AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY
AND THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST, AND UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS, WITH GUSTIER WINDS TAKING HOLD IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1210 PM MONDAY...
EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE. STILL QUITE A BIT
UNCERTAIN CONCERNING EXACT DETAILS, BUT GENERAL SETUP FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY IS FOR AN UPPER TROUGH TO SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S., WITH A LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. TOWARDS THE AREA.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY
RAINS SETTING UP AT TIMES. CAN'T EVEN COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER DURING THIS TIME. PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST MINOR HYDRO ISSUES.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN IN THE OVERALL PATTERN,
BUT OVERALL, THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SYSTEM KICKING OFF TO THE EAST
BY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/LOW TO THE WEST DEVELOPS AND MOVES
EAST, WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION, AND PERHAPS SOME
SNOW SHOWERS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1210 PM MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 22Z
MONDAY, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE TEENS, BECOMING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY AFTER 22Z MONDAY.
ON TUESDAY, LIGHT SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO SE OHIO, NE KY, OHIO
RIVER VICINITY AFTER 15Z, ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING IN AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. IN ADDITION, SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 14Z, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20 KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ON TUESDAY, TIMING OF APPROACHING SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ALONG AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EST 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOW STRATUS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY IN/NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. IFR IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH RAIN.
EQUIPMENT
OBSERVATIONS AT KEKN REMAIN SPORADIC DUE TO A SERVICE OUTAGE.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...SL
EQUIPMENT...SL
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