359
FXUS61 KRLX 052340
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
640 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT SHOWERS
TUESDAY WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE. ROUNDS OF RAIN EXPECTED
STARTING LATE WEEK WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1210 PM MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED TO OUR EAST, WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH, WITH WARMER TEMPS TUESDAY
MORNING COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, EVENTUALLY SPREADING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE
AREA, EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EVEN WITH THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS, HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MAY HIT THE
LOWER 60S FOR SOME LOWLAND LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1210 PM MONDAY...
SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS, AND PERHAPS AREAS OF -DZ WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD AGAIN, WITH A DRY,
AND GRADUALLY WARMING PERIOD, PARTICULARLY AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY
AND THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST, AND UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS, WITH GUSTIER WINDS TAKING HOLD IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1210 PM MONDAY...
EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE. STILL QUITE A BIT
UNCERTAIN CONCERNING EXACT DETAILS, BUT GENERAL SETUP FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY IS FOR AN UPPER TROUGH TO SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S., WITH A LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. TOWARDS THE AREA.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY
RAINS SETTING UP AT TIMES. CAN'T EVEN COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER DURING THIS TIME. PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST MINOR HYDRO ISSUES.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN IN THE OVERALL PATTERN,
BUT OVERALL, THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SYSTEM KICKING OFF TO THE EAST
BY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/LOW TO THE WEST DEVELOPS AND MOVES
EAST, WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION, AND PERHAPS SOME
SNOW SHOWERS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 630 PM MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER,
MVFR CIGS WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST AND TAKE OVER THE AREA BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME AREAS
RECEIVING LIGHT RAIN, HOWEVER THE PROBABILITIES WERE TOO LOW TO
ENTER INTO TAFS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EST 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOW STRATUS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY IN/NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. IFR IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH RAIN.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JZ
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