503
FXUS61 KRLX 060610
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
110 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS LATER TODAY WITH A FRONT. ROUNDS OF RAIN EXPECTED
STARTING LATE WEEK WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 110 AM TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP US DRY AT LEAST THROUGH
THE MORNING, EVEN WITH A STALLED FRONT OVER THE AREA. SOME
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILTER OVER AND WINDS WILL BE CALM.
RIDGE-VALLEY SPLIT WILL KEEP THE MOUNTAINS LESS COLDER THAN THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. LOWS WILL BE ACHIEVED FAIRLY
EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLED FRONT TRUDGES NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL START RISING GRADUALLY BEFORE
SUNRISE AS A RESULT. OUR LOWS THIS MORNING WILL BE IN THE 30S
AND 40S WITH THE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN OHIO AND THE NORTHEASTERN
MOUNTAINS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD, BUT COMFORTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LOWLANDS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. THE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO THE MID 50S. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP
TODAY AND WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CHANCES FOR RAIN OVERSPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHER LIKELIHOOD WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS AND
MOUNTAINS WITH POPS REACHING 60% TO 70%. ANY RAINFALL TODAY WILL
BE VERY LIGHT WITH A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED FOR
MOST, BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.10" AND 0.20" ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1210 PM MONDAY...
SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS, AND PERHAPS AREAS OF -DZ WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD AGAIN, WITH A DRY,
AND GRADUALLY WARMING PERIOD, PARTICULARLY AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY
AND THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST, AND UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS, WITH GUSTIER WINDS TAKING HOLD IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1210 PM MONDAY...
EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE. STILL QUITE A BIT
UNCERTAIN CONCERNING EXACT DETAILS, BUT GENERAL SETUP FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY IS FOR AN UPPER TROUGH TO SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S., WITH A LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. TOWARDS THE AREA.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY
RAINS SETTING UP AT TIMES. CAN'T EVEN COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER DURING THIS TIME. PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST MINOR HYDRO ISSUES.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN IN THE OVERALL PATTERN,
BUT OVERALL, THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SYSTEM KICKING OFF TO THE EAST
BY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/LOW TO THE WEST DEVELOPS AND MOVES
EAST, WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION, AND PERHAPS SOME
SNOW SHOWERS.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1245 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING UNDER
SCT TO BKN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. MVFR CEILINGS MOVE BACK IN FROM
WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING IN AS WELL
WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES AT PKB, CKB, AND EKN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE CALM EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT A WARM FRONT WILL
CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PICK UP BY ~11-12Z. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS BETWEEN
15 AND 25 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL
BE ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES OF THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG OR LOW STRATUS COULD FORM AT EKN WHEN
IT IS NOT FORECASTED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 01/06/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EST 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOW STRATUS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY IN/NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. IFR IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH RAIN.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...LTC
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