655
FXUS61 KRLX 061042
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
542 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS LATER TODAY WITH A FRONT. ROUNDS OF RAIN EXPECTED
STARTING LATE WEEK WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 110 AM TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP US DRY AT LEAST THROUGH
THE MORNING, EVEN WITH A STALLED FRONT OVER THE AREA. SOME
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILTER OVER AND WINDS WILL BE CALM.
RIDGE-VALLEY SPLIT WILL KEEP THE MOUNTAINS LESS COLDER THAN THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. LOWS WILL BE ACHIEVED FAIRLY
EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLED FRONT TRUDGES NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL START RISING GRADUALLY BEFORE
SUNRISE AS A RESULT. OUR LOWS THIS MORNING WILL BE IN THE 30S
AND 40S WITH THE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN OHIO AND THE NORTHEASTERN
MOUNTAINS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD, BUT COMFORTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LOWLANDS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. THE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO THE MID 50S. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP
TODAY AND WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CHANCES FOR RAIN OVERSPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHER LIKELIHOOD WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS AND
MOUNTAINS WITH POPS REACHING 60% TO 70%. ANY RAINFALL TODAY WILL
BE VERY LIGHT WITH A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED FOR
MOST, BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.10" AND 0.20" ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 220 AM TUESDAY...
SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT DRIER WEATHER WILL BE IN PLAY AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A BRIEF STINT OF HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STUBBORN POST-FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL ERODE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WILL BE COLD UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UPPER
20S AND 30S ON THE BOARD.
ANOTHER WARM FRONT IS PROJECTED TO CROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. REMINISCENT OF APRIL INSTEAD OF JANUARY. THE LOWLANDS CAN
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR WEST LATE THURSDAY,
BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY AND COULD BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. WPC HAS PLACED A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT, NAMELY NORTHEASTERN KY AND A CHUNK OF THE TRI-STATE
AREA. GULF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER
OR AROUND AN INCH.
MODELS, SPECIFICALLY THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND EURO,
PREDICT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TO BE NEAR AN
INCH OR OVER AN INCH. LUCKILY, FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS WELL OVER
TWO TO THREE INCHES, SO MOST OF THE RIVERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
HANDLE THIS RAINFALL. ESPECIALLY, SINCE MOST OF IT WILL BE
FALLING OVER A 24 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD. SNOW MELT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS MAY POSE SOME ISSUES NONETHELESS. OTHERWISE,
WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, BUT
SOME MINOR PROBLEMS COULD OCCUR, PARTICULARLY FOR RIVERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND TRI-STATE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK COURTESY
OF SULTRY GULF MOISTURE VIA SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE LOWLANDS
WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 60S WITH THE TYPICAL WARM SPOTS
SNEAKING CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES. THE MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT 50S AND
LOWER 60S.
THE MOST CONCENTRATED RAINFALL WILL BE WRAPPING UP BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES. ALLOWED CHANCES FOR LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FRIDAY, YET STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT RACES DOWN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW LOOKS PROMISING
WITH THIS STRONGER REINFORCING FRONT. A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE A
LIKELY OUTCOME ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS GIVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
COLDER, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN ON SUNDAY BEHIND
THIS FRONT WITH 20S AND 30S ON THE BOARD, AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OUT OF THIS. THE GFS WANTS TO GO WITH A
SOLID 1 TO 3 INCHES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY; THE EURO SIGNIFICANTLY
LESS.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 540 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING UNDER
SCT TO BKN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. EKN HAS SHOWED SIGNS OF PATCHY FOG
WITH CALM WINDS AND 100% RH, BUT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND
WINDS ALOFT MAY BE DISRUPTING ITS FORMATION. GOING TO HOLD 6SM
AND BR FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WINDS
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO PICK UP IN THE VALLEY.
MVFR CEILINGS MOVE BACK IN FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING IN AS WELL WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES
AT PKB, CKB, AND EKN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE CALM EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT A WARM FRONT WILL
CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PICK UP AFTER ~12Z. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS BETWEEN
15 AND 25 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE
ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES OF THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG OR LOW STRATUS MAY BE PRESENT AT EKN
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE ~12Z FORECAST PERIOD. TIMING OF
MVFR CEILINGS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 01/06/26
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOW STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING,
PRIMARILY IN/NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH RAIN.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...LTC
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