720
FXUS61 KRLX 062342
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
642 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN RETURN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
A FRONT. MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN ROUNDS OF RAIN
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...
FOR THE TIME BEING, IT APPEARS WE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. UNCERTAINTY DOES LINGER ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS,
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA, AS THE POPS
AND QPF ARE BOTH HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH-CENTRAL WV. CONSIDERING THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME-HEIGHT SERIES, IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL MAINTAIN ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW TO KEEP
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT. KEEPING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS GOING
INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY ALSO SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
THIS DATA, BUT AS THE DEPTH OF THE SATURATED LAYER DIMINISHES
AND WINDS START TO VEER MORE SW'LY, SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
FINALLY CUT OFF BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THIS EVENT LOOKS LIGHT FOR MOST OF THE
LOWLANDS IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA,
GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH, WITH A BIT MORE OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL WV. RUNNING UP INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WE COULD
POTENTIALLY SEE A QUARTER INCH OR A BIT MORE FOR THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, WHERE THE BETTER FOCUS OF MOISTURE AND
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW SEEMS TO BE DIRECTED. UNDER CLOUDY SKIES
TODAY, WE'LL STILL BE WARMING INTO THE MID OR UPPER 50S FOR MOST
OF THE LOWLANDS AS THE SW'LY WINDS PICK UP AND PROMOTE SOME
MIXING. MILDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES, WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID-30S TO MID-40S,
DESPITE THE WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. POST-
FRONT, HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY, BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL, WITH A WILD
CARD BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATER AFTERNOON SUNSHINE THAT
COULD BREAK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1245 PM TUESDAY...
WE LOOK TO HAVE A BRIEF INTERLUDE IN THE PRECIPITATION FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT (THOUGH LOWLANDS SHOULD BE DRY BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY OR EARLIER) THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS
LOOK TO START TO WORK INTO OUR OH AND KY COUNTIES BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT, GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND ENCROACHING RIDGING ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHTER WINDS,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH
SOME 20S POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. STRENGTHENING S'LY WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID-60S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH 40S TO
MID-50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. IT REMAINS MILD - 40S AND 50S - FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE S'LY WINDS PERSIST WHILE CLOUDS THICKEN
AND RAIN PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...
AS A COUPLE OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND SURFACE LOWS RIDE
UP TO THE WEST OF US, IT WILL HOLD THE FRONT JUST TO THE WEST,
KEEPING ROUNDS OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THE CWA FOR FRIDAY AND
LIKELY MOST OF SATURDAY. BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR, THE RAINFALL
IS LIKELY TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES, WITH A COUPLE OF INSTANCES OF
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE CURRENT
DETERMINISTIC QPF CALLS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT RANGING FROM A BIT OVER A HALF INCH ON THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE CWA TO 1.25-1.50 INCHES FOR THE SOUTHERN WV COALFIELDS
AND OUR SW VA COUNTIES. AN ADDITIONAL 0.25-0.50 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF SATURDAY.
ON THE PROBABILISTIC SIDE OF THE DATA, THE AREA WITH OVER 50%
CHANCE FOR OVER ONE INCH OF TOTAL RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF
THE US-50 CORRIDOR, WITH THAT NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA ALONG
AND NORTH OF US-50 LIKELY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR 1.50 INCHES OR MORE OF RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE
CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHERN WV AND VA COALFIELDS. THIS
WOULD BE IDEAL FROM A HYDROLOGY PERSPECTIVE IF THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WERE TO FALL FURTHER SOUTH, AS THE ONLY PLACE WHERE WE HAVE
SWE VALUES STILL UP AROUND ONE INCH OR SLIGHTLY MORE ARE IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES. ADDING
IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT TO DECENT RAINFALL WOULD RAISE THE
FLOODING POTENTIAL, BUT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SNOW LEFT IN OUR
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW, AND NONE LEFT FOR THE COALFIELDS.
THAT SAID, WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL, SOME OF WHICH MAY
BE HEAVY, WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING
POTENTIAL LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, AND WPC DID MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT MARGINAL RAINFALL RISK OVER THE SW PART OF THE CWA.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FINALLY PUSH THROUGH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH POPS DROPPING OFF THAT NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THE BEST PUSH OF COLD AIR
MAY NOT PUSH INTO THE CWA UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING. THUS,
WHILE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE 30S FOR THE
LOWLANDS AND 20S FOR THE MOUNTAINS, THE EXPECTED COLD ADVECTION
AND LINGERING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY MEANS TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BARELY BUDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, THEN DROP INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S SUNDAY NIGHT. GOING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, LINGERING
RAIN WILL START TO MIX WITH SNOW, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAWN, WITH
SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD
FINALLY TAPER OFF BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND
DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
WHILE WE DON'T FORECAST SPECIFIC SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS FAR OUT,
LOOKING AT PROBABILISTIC NBM DATA, IT'S STILL POINTING TOWARDS
FAIRLY LIGHT AMOUNTS - GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH EXCEPT PERHAPS A
BIT HIGHER FOR SOME OF HIGHER RIDGES AROUND KUMBRABOW AND
SNOWSHOE. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS MUCH HIGHER ON SOME RECENT
RUNS, WITH SEVERAL INCHES IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS, BUT THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS CLOSER AN INCH OR MAYBE 1.5 INCHES AT THE
HIGH POINT. THE EURO ENSEMBLE IS LOWER, CLOSER TO OR EVEN UNDER
THE NBM MEAN.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 645 PM TUESDAY...
BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS WILL MAINTAIN A PRESENCE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE MORNING. SOME BORDERLINE IFR CIGS MAY
IMPACT THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TONIGHT. CLOUDS START TO CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW OPENING UP VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY
EARLY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY VARY FROM THE
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY M L H M H M H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH AREAS
OF HEAVIER RAIN.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...JZ
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