674
FXUS61 KRLX 070609
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
109 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS MORNING. MOSTLY DRY TODAY AND THURSDAY,
THEN ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 107 AM WEDNESDAY...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS ALREADY OUT AHEAD OF IT. BLEND OF MODELS WAS VERY QUICK
TO DROP TEMPERATURES DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER, MOISTURE, AND THE
SEEMINGLY LACKADAISICAL SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT. WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE LAMP GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS TO PREVENT
A SWIFT DROP IN TEMPERATURES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE MILD
THAN PREVIOUS MORNINGS WITH 40S ACROSS A BULK OF THE AREA; MID
30S TO LOW 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. WSW WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO
GUSTY THIS MORNING AND WILL REMAIN SO BEHIND THE FRONT LATER
TODAY WITH MORE ROUTINE, POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY FLOW.
LOW CEILINGS AND CHANCES FOR LINGERING UPSLOPE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS AND NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS
LAST THROUGH THE DAY, BUT OTHERWISE DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY ABOUT 4 TO 7 DEGREES ARE FORECASTED TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, BUT STILL MILD IN TERMS OF WHAT OUR
NORMAL SHOULD BE FOR THE SEASON. THE LOWLANDS CAN EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S, WHILE THE MOUNTAINS REMAIN IN
THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1245 PM TUESDAY...
WE LOOK TO HAVE A BRIEF INTERLUDE IN THE PRECIPITATION FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT (THOUGH LOWLANDS SHOULD BE DRY BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY OR EARLIER) THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS
LOOK TO START TO WORK INTO OUR OH AND KY COUNTIES BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT, GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND ENCROACHING RIDGING ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHTER WINDS,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH
SOME 20S POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. STRENGTHENING S'LY WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID-60S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH 40S TO
MID-50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. IT REMAINS MILD - 40S AND 50S - FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE S'LY WINDS PERSIST WHILE CLOUDS THICKEN
AND RAIN PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...
AS A COUPLE OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND SURFACE LOWS RIDE
UP TO THE WEST OF US, IT WILL HOLD THE FRONT JUST TO THE WEST,
KEEPING ROUNDS OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THE CWA FOR FRIDAY AND
LIKELY MOST OF SATURDAY. BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR, THE RAINFALL
IS LIKELY TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES, WITH A COUPLE OF INSTANCES OF
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE CURRENT
DETERMINISTIC QPF CALLS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT RANGING FROM A BIT OVER A HALF INCH ON THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE CWA TO 1.25-1.50 INCHES FOR THE SOUTHERN WV COALFIELDS
AND OUR SW VA COUNTIES. AN ADDITIONAL 0.25-0.50 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE THE REST OF SATURDAY.
ON THE PROBABILISTIC SIDE OF THE DATA, THE AREA WITH OVER 50%
CHANCE FOR OVER ONE INCH OF TOTAL RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF
THE US-50 CORRIDOR, WITH THAT NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA ALONG
AND NORTH OF US-50 LIKELY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR 1.50 INCHES OR MORE OF RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE
CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHERN WV AND VA COALFIELDS. THIS
WOULD BE IDEAL FROM A HYDROLOGY PERSPECTIVE IF THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WERE TO FALL FURTHER SOUTH, AS THE ONLY PLACE WHERE WE HAVE
SWE VALUES STILL UP AROUND ONE INCH OR SLIGHTLY MORE ARE IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES. ADDING
IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT TO DECENT RAINFALL WOULD RAISE THE
FLOODING POTENTIAL, BUT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SNOW LEFT IN OUR
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW, AND NONE LEFT FOR THE COALFIELDS.
THAT SAID, WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL, SOME OF WHICH MAY
BE HEAVY, WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING
POTENTIAL LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, AND WPC DID MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT MARGINAL RAINFALL RISK OVER THE SW PART OF THE CWA.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FINALLY PUSH THROUGH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH POPS DROPPING OFF THAT NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THE BEST PUSH OF COLD AIR
MAY NOT PUSH INTO THE CWA UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING. THUS,
WHILE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE 30S FOR THE
LOWLANDS AND 20S FOR THE MOUNTAINS, THE EXPECTED COLD ADVECTION
AND LINGERING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY MEANS TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BARELY BUDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, THEN DROP INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S SUNDAY NIGHT. GOING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, LINGERING
RAIN WILL START TO MIX WITH SNOW, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAWN, WITH
SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD
FINALLY TAPER OFF BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND
DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
WHILE WE DON'T FORECAST SPECIFIC SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS FAR OUT,
LOOKING AT PROBABILISTIC NBM DATA, IT'S STILL POINTING TOWARDS
FAIRLY LIGHT AMOUNTS - GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH EXCEPT PERHAPS A
BIT HIGHER FOR SOME OF HIGHER RIDGES AROUND KUMBRABOW AND
SNOWSHOE. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS MUCH HIGHER ON SOME RECENT
RUNS, WITH SEVERAL INCHES IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS, BUT THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS CLOSER AN INCH OR MAYBE 1.5 INCHES AT THE
HIGH POINT. THE EURO ENSEMBLE IS LOWER, CLOSER TO OR EVEN UNDER
THE NBM MEAN.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1245 AM WEDNESDAY...
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AT THIS HOUR. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS TRAVERSING THE
NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS, CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWLANDS. DID
INCLUDE VCSH OR -SHRA WHERE NECESSARY, MOSTLY A CONCERN FOR CKB
AND EKN. PRECIPITATION WILL BE WRAPPING UP BY ~10Z.
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER THIS MORNING WITH
MOST OF OUR SITES REDUCING TO MVFR CATEGORY BY ~09Z. SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT EKN, CKB, AND MAYBE BKW.
LOW CEILINGS WILL LAST THROUGH THE BULK OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY,
BEFORE THEY EVENTUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. CKB
AND EKN WILL LIKELY HOLD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL ~06Z
THURSDAY.
WSW WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO GUSTY THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES. GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON EARLY THIS
MORNING, BUT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT MORE W'RLY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS MAY
VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 01/07/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EST 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH AREAS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...LTC
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