725
FXUS61 KRLX 071051
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
551 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS MORNING. MOSTLY DRY TODAY AND THURSDAY,
THEN ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 107 AM WEDNESDAY...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS ALREADY OUT AHEAD OF IT. BLEND OF MODELS WAS VERY QUICK
TO DROP TEMPERATURES DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER, MOISTURE, AND THE
SEEMINGLY LACKADAISICAL SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT. WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE LAMP GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS TO PREVENT
A SWIFT DROP IN TEMPERATURES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE MILD
THAN PREVIOUS MORNINGS WITH 40S ACROSS A BULK OF THE AREA; MID
30S TO LOW 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. WSW WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO
GUSTY THIS MORNING AND WILL REMAIN SO BEHIND THE FRONT LATER
TODAY WITH MORE ROUTINE, POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY FLOW.
LOW CEILINGS AND CHANCES FOR LINGERING UPSLOPE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS AND NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS
LAST THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE, DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. COOLER TEMPERATURES BY ABOUT 4
TO 7 DEGREES ARE FORECASTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT, BUT STILL MILD IN TERMS OF WHAT OUR NORMAL SHOULD BE FOR
THE SEASON. THE LOWLANDS CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
THE MID 50S, WHILE THE MOUNTAINS REMAIN IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...
DRIER WEATHER WILL STRETCH INTO THURSDAY, EVEN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING EAST. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT PUSHING
IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP BY NEARLY
7 TO 10 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY. THE LOWLANDS WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
STAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S, BUT LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD
RISE TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.
THICKENING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH. CHANCES FOR RAIN CREEP IN FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A TROUGH INCHES CLOSER TO
THE AREA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 302 AM WEDNESDAY...
A DEEPENING 500MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL TRY TO FORCE A VIGOROUS TROUGH THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, BUT A STOUT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA WILL
KEEP THE LOW AND TROUGH FROM MOVING THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT, A COLD FRONT WILL SET UP TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY AND
REMAIN PARKED UNTIL SATURDAY. WITH THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON. THE LOWLANDS WILL BE IN THE
60S WITH THE TYPICAL WARM SPOTS FLIRTING WITH 70 DEGREES. 50S
AND LOWER 60S WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST
FRIDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE LIKELY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES
BEING PREDICTED TO ACCUMULATE FROM VERY EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGHER AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.00 INCHES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS, TRI-STATE
AREA, AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE BULK OF THIS WILL FALL LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW BETWEEN HALF AN INCH
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL COULD FALL DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SHOWS AMPLE RESERVE TO HANDLE MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THIS RAINFALL, BUT SOME LOCALIZED TO MINOR ISSUES COULD
BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS. THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN OUR VA COUNTIES AND JUST
SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN MOST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS RISK GETS EXPANDED INTO OUR AREA FARTHER.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS SATURDAY FORCING MORE CONCENTRATED
RAINFALL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CURRENTLY, SATURDAY STILL LOOKS WARM WITH THE LOWLANDS
AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS STILL CLINGING ON TO SOME
60S, BUT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DICTATE THE TRUTH OF
THESE NUMBERS.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A
NOTICEABLE AND MORE SEASONABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS
A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE GFS PAINTS A SOLID 1-3
INCHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WHILE THE EURO STILL REMAINS
CONSERVATIVE, HIGHLIGHTING BARELY AN INCH ACROSS THE USUAL
UPSLOPE AREAS. A COLD AND POSSIBLY SNOWY CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND
AND GENESIS OF THE NEW WEEK LOOKS MORE THAN PROBABLE.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 550 AM WEDNESDAY...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA THIS MORNING SPAWNING
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LOWLAND MOUNTAINS. SOME OF
THESE ARE PRODUCING MODERATE RAINFALL AND THERE HAS BEEN A FEW
CLOUD FLASHES NEAR EKN ASSOCIATED WITH CROSSING THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. ALLOWED TEMPO GROUPS AND VCSH AT BKW, CRW AND EKN AS
THESE SITES WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE SHOWERS AS THIS FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE TAPERING OFF BY ~14-15Z, SO
ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE TAFS IS FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS AS DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS ARE A MIX BAG WITH LOW-LEVEL VFR OR MVFR BEING
REPORTED. MVFR CEILINGS WILL IMPACT MOST SITES THIS MORNING AS
THE FRONT CROSSES. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY LIFT AND SCATTER LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SITES SUCH AS BKW, CKB, AND EKN WILL LIKELY HANG ON TO STUBBORN
MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTER ~00Z.
WSW WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES.
GUSTS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING, BUT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
WINDS SHIFT MORE W'RLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR THIS MORNING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATER TODAY
COULD VARY FOR SITES EXPERIENCING RESTRICTIONS. TIMING OF
SHOWERS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 01/07/26
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH AREAS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...LTC
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