954
FXUS61 KRLX 071713
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1213 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. ROUNDS OF RAIN
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS TO END THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1210 PM WEDNESDAY...
OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH, DRIER AND CLEARER
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD, AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE REGION.
THURSDAY WILL START A BRIEF PERIOD OF GRADUALLY WARMER CONDITIONS,
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST, AND UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD IN RESPONSE
TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THURSDAY EVENING OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS, WITH GUSTIER WINDS TAKING HOLD FOR FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1210 PM WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOK TO BE QUITE ACTIVE, AND WINDY. A SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN U.S., AND
MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE REGION. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DURING THE PERIOD WILL PUMP AMPLE GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE PERIOD. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST
TOWARDS THE AREA AS THE INITIAL LOW MOVES NORTH, FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP AND EJECT NORTHEAST, MOVING DIRECTLY
THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE
PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL, WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKING
TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES, AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION, PERIODS OF ENHANCED RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP, ALTHOUGH
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. AT LEAST MINOR HYDRO ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT AS FAR AS WIDESPREAD CONCERNS, AT THIS TIME, NOT AS CONCERNED AS
AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO REMAIN LOW.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1210 PM WEDNESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST, WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. COLDER, AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL TAKE
HOLD FOR SUNDAY INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS AN UPPER
LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, CAVING A TROUGH OUT
ACROSS THE AREA. FALLING TEMPERATURES AND VERY GUSTY WINDS OWING
TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY,
ALONG WITH A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN PARTICULAR. DRIER
CONDITIONS LOOK TO TAKE HOLD EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1210 PM WEDNESDAY...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY
CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, WITH VFR EXPECTED AREA
WIDE BY 06Z-09Z.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND FROM THE WEST, ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AT TIMES, MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, AFFECTING SITES KBKW AND KEKN THROUGH 22Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT COULD VARY FOR SITES EXPERIENCING RESTRICTIONS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EST 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH AREAS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...SL
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