364
FXUS61 KRLX 080121
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
821 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. ROUNDS OF RAIN
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS TO END THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 820 PM WEDNESDAY...
LOWERED TEMPERATURES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO CATCH UP WITH
COOLING BEING ALLOWED BY THE NORTHWARD-ADVANCING CLEARING LINE
LINE. OVERALL OVERNIGHT LOWS AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAIN
ON TRACK.
AS OF 1210 PM WEDNESDAY...
OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH, DRIER AND CLEARER
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD, AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE REGION.
THURSDAY WILL START A BRIEF PERIOD OF GRADUALLY WARMER CONDITIONS,
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST, AND UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD IN RESPONSE
TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THURSDAY EVENING OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS, WITH GUSTIER WINDS TAKING HOLD FOR FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1210 PM WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOK TO BE QUITE ACTIVE, AND WINDY. A SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN U.S., AND
MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE REGION. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DURING THE PERIOD WILL PUMP AMPLE GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE PERIOD. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST
TOWARDS THE AREA AS THE INITIAL LOW MOVES NORTH, FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP AND EJECT NORTHEAST, MOVING DIRECTLY
THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE
PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL, WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKING
TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES, AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION, PERIODS OF ENHANCED RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP, ALTHOUGH
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. AT LEAST MINOR HYDRO ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT AS FAR AS WIDESPREAD CONCERNS, AT THIS TIME, NOT AS CONCERNED AS
AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO REMAIN LOW.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1210 PM WEDNESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST, WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. COLDER, AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL TAKE
HOLD FOR SUNDAY INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS AN UPPER
LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, CAVING A TROUGH OUT
ACROSS THE AREA. FALLING TEMPERATURES AND VERY GUSTY WINDS OWING
TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY,
ALONG WITH A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN PARTICULAR. DRIER
CONDITIONS LOOK TO TAKE HOLD EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 620 PM WEDNESDAY...
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES PKB, CKB AND EKN WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE TONIGHT, MOST LIKELY BREAKING EARLY ON AT PKB
BUT PERHAPS NOT UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT CKB AND EKN.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, GUIDANCE
SHOWS FOG FORMATION OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BUT THE HIGH
WILL BE SQUARELY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY DAWN THURSDAY. HAVE
CODED BRIEF IFR FOG AROUND THEN PKB, EKN AND CRW. OTHERWISE
THURSDAY WILL TURN OUT TO BE A VFR DAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS LOWERING
TO MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM SURFACE FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY, EXCEPT A BIT GUSTY AT BKW
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTH ON THURSDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR TO VFR
CEILINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES PKB, CKB AND EKN TONIGHT
COULD VARY, AS CAN FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H M L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH AREAS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM
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