988
FXUS61 KRLX 080629
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
129 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
LAST DAY OF DRIER WEATHER TODAY. ROUNDS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CLOSE
OUT THE WEEK. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SOME SNOW SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 128 AM THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING REINFORCES DRIER WEATHER.
DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS FORMED THIS MORNING UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. SATELLITE OBS SHOWS SOME HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING THROUGH, SO FOG DENSITY WILL LIKELY BOUNCE,
HOWEVER INSTANCES OF VISIBILITY A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LOWER
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLDER WITH UPPER 20S AND 30S EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST LATER THIS MORNING, ALLOWING A
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO FILL IN BEHIND. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY AT TIMES AS A RESULT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
FOG WILL LIFT AND SCATTER GIVING WAY TO DRIER WEATHER FOR OUR
THURSDAY. HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
THE LOWLANDS BREAKING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE MID 40S AND UPPER 50S.
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS A POTENT LOW
AND TROUGH ADVANCE FROM THE WEST. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF OUR WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS DRIER WEATHER COMES TO AN END.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1210 PM WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOK TO BE QUITE ACTIVE, AND WINDY. A SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN U.S., AND
MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE REGION. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DURING THE PERIOD WILL PUMP AMPLE GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE PERIOD. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST
TOWARDS THE AREA AS THE INITIAL LOW MOVES NORTH, FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP AND EJECT NORTHEAST, MOVING DIRECTLY
THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE
PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL, WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKING
TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES, AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION, PERIODS OF ENHANCED RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP, ALTHOUGH
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. AT LEAST MINOR HYDRO ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT AS FAR AS WIDESPREAD CONCERNS, AT THIS TIME, NOT AS CONCERNED AS
AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO REMAIN LOW.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1210 PM WEDNESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST, WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. COLDER, AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL TAKE
HOLD FOR SUNDAY INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS AN UPPER
LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, CAVING A TROUGH OUT
ACROSS THE AREA. FALLING TEMPERATURES AND VERY GUSTY WINDS OWING
TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY,
ALONG WITH A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN PARTICULAR. DRIER
CONDITIONS LOOK TO TAKE HOLD EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1255 AM THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD, BUT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH ~12-13Z LEADING TO A DECENT AMOUNT OF RIVER VALLEY
FOG THIS MORNING. IFR OR LOWER CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED AT
MOST SITES, EXCEPT BKW DUE TO DENSE FOG.
FOG WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY ~13-14Z, YIELDING TO VFR CONDITIONS
FOR TODAY. MODELS SHOW SCT TO BKN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM SURFACE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AND LIGHT TO BREEZY TODAY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 10
AND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG FORMATION MAY
VARY FROM FORECAST. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY ALSO VARY
TODAY AS FOG LIFTS AND SCATTERS.
FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST
TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 01/08/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EST 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L L M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L L M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH AREAS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...LTC
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