403
FXUS61 KRLX 081717
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1217 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
LAST DAY OF DRIER WEATHER TODAY. ROUNDS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CLOSE
OUT THE WEEK. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SOME SNOW SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1107 AM THURSDAY...
TODAY SHOULD BE A DRY AND COMFORTABLE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES BY. RAIN
WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AREAWIDE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS MORE
ROBUST MID-LEVEL ENERGY FLOWS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH.
SOME THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT FRIDAY WITH A FEW MODELS SHOWING
SMALL AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED CAPE (<300 J/KG) ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA
IN THE WARM SECTOR. SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE VERY STRONG (60+ KTS)
WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, AND SOME OF THOSE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS. UP TO 0.25" OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY 00Z
SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1107 AM THURSDAY...
THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS THE CENTER
OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL MOSTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST,
WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WILL
RANGE FROM A HALF INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO, TO AROUND AN INCH
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, TO UP TO 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA. WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY PLACES SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF FLOODING SATURDAY, AND THE
REASON FOR THIS LOWER THREAT IS DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE A DRASTIC DROP IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 60S SATURDAY, BUT HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE NO BETTER
THAN THE 30S AREAWIDE. THE NORTHWESTERLY PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL
CREATE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGES SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, AND MAY BE APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1107 AM THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MONDAY,
BRINGING DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW THIS UNFOLDS. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE SHOWING A "MILLER B" TYPE OF SCENARIO WITH LOW PRESSURE
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST, THEN
RE-INTENSIFYING ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST. OTHER MODELS JUST
SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
WITH NO COASTAL INTENSIFICATION. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY, WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND WILL GO INTO MORE DETAIL AS THE
PICTURE BECOMES CLEARER.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1214 PM THURSDAY...
THIS MORNING'S DENSE FOG IS FINALLY LIFTING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
NOW REPORTED FOR OUR SIX AREA TERMINALS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
BEGINNING AROUND 06Z FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. IN
ADDITION, 40-50 KT LLWS IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 1,500 AND 2,000
FEET FOR ALL AREA TERMINALS BEGINNING AT 06Z FRIDAY. LLWS
SHOULD DECREASE BY 15Z FRIDAY AS MIXING OCCURS AFTER SUNRISE.
LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING AT 16Z FRIDAY,
WHICH CAN TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES. HOWEVER,
WE DIDN'T HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REDUCE VISBYS IN THIS
TAF PACKAGE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF LLWS MAY VARY FROM
THE FORECAST.
FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST
TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 01/08/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EST 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L L M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L L M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H H H
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EST 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26
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