659
FXUS61 KRLX 090006
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
706 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND MILD TONIGHT. ROUNDS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEK. WINDY AND COLDER WITH SOME SNOW TO START THE NEW WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1107 AM THURSDAY...
TODAY SHOULD BE A DRY AND COMFORTABLE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, AND A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AS THE WARM FRONT
PASSES BY. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AREAWIDE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS MORE ROBUST MID-LEVEL ENERGY FLOWS INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A DEEPENING
TROUGH.
SOME THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT FRIDAY WITH A FEW MODELS SHOWING
SMALL AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED CAPE (<300 J/KG) ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA
IN THE WARM SECTOR. SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE VERY STRONG (60+
KTS) WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, AND SOME OF THOSE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS. UP TO 0.25" OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY 00Z
SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1107 AM THURSDAY...
THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS THE CENTER
OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL MOSTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST,
WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WILL
RANGE FROM A HALF INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO, TO AROUND AN INCH
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, TO UP TO 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA. WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY PLACES SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF FLOODING SATURDAY, AND THE
REASON FOR THIS LOWER THREAT IS DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE A DRASTIC DROP IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 60S SATURDAY, BUT HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE NO BETTER
THAN THE 30S AREAWIDE. THE NORTHWESTERLY PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL
CREATE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGES SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, AND MAY BE APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1107 AM THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MONDAY,
BRINGING DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW THIS UNFOLDS. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE SHOWING A "MILLER B" TYPE OF SCENARIO WITH LOW PRESSURE
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST, THEN
RE-INTENSIFYING ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST. OTHER MODELS JUST
SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
WITH NO COASTAL INTENSIFICATION. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY, WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND WILL GO INTO MORE DETAIL AS THE
PICTURE BECOMES CLEARER.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 705 PM THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING, AND THEN ENTER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, 00Z
SATURDAY.
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LOWER AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. ONE
OR TWO LINES OF SHOWERS, POTENTIALLY GUSTY, WILL CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE SHOWERS WILL BRING MVFR TO
BRIEF IFR CEILINGS AND AT TIMES VISIBILITY.
ALREADY GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT BKW, LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
ELSEWHERE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY, TO 15 TO 20
KTS, OVERNIGHT WHILE VEERING TO SOUTH, AND THEN SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS, PERHAPS HIGHER, ESPECIALLY
IN SHOWERS COMING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY,
SHIFTING TO WEST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TOWARD 00Z AS THE FRONT
CROSSES.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME STRONG
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AND REMAIN SO THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, BEFORE
SLACKENING TO LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY. THIS
COULD RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY WHERE
SURFACE FLOW DOES NOT PICK UP QUICKLY ENOUGH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF SURFACE WIND GUSTS
AND LLWS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL
FLUCTUATE AND COULD BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS FRIDAY. FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES FRIDAY
MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
EST 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L M L H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR IS AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN AREAS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN. IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...TRM
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