270
FXUS61 KRLX 090555
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1255 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND MILD TONIGHT. ROUNDS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEK. WINDY AND COLDER WITH SOME SNOW TO START THE NEW WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 1107 AM THURSDAY...
TODAY SHOULD BE A DRY AND COMFORTABLE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, AND A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AS THE WARM FRONT
PASSES BY. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AREAWIDE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS MORE ROBUST MID-LEVEL ENERGY FLOWS INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A DEEPENING
TROUGH.
SOME THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT FRIDAY WITH A FEW MODELS SHOWING
SMALL AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED CAPE (<300 J/KG) ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA
IN THE WARM SECTOR. SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE VERY STRONG (60+
KTS) WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, AND SOME OF THOSE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS. UP TO 0.25" OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY 00Z
SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1107 AM THURSDAY...
THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS THE CENTER
OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL MOSTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST,
WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WILL
RANGE FROM A HALF INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO, TO AROUND AN INCH
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, TO UP TO 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA. WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY PLACES SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF FLOODING SATURDAY, AND THE
REASON FOR THIS LOWER THREAT IS DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE A DRASTIC DROP IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 60S SATURDAY, BUT HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE NO BETTER
THAN THE 30S AREAWIDE. THE NORTHWESTERLY PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL
CREATE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGES SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, AND MAY BE APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1107 AM THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MONDAY,
BRINGING DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW THIS UNFOLDS. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE SHOWING A "MILLER B" TYPE OF SCENARIO WITH LOW PRESSURE
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST, THEN
RE-INTENSIFYING ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST. OTHER MODELS JUST
SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
WITH NO COASTAL INTENSIFICATION. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY, WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND WILL GO INTO MORE DETAIL AS THE
PICTURE BECOMES CLEARER.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...
STRONG SOUTHWEST GUSTY WINDS OF 20–30 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS MOST SITES TODAY, SUBSIDING LATER WHILE VEERING FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. STRONGER WINDS OF 45–50
KNOTS ALOFT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS)
ACROSS MOST TERMINALS FROM NOW THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRENGTHENED OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE SLACKENING TO LIGHT OR MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW LATE FRIDAY. A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE COLD FRONT, VEERING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST BY
00Z–02Z SATURDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ARRIVAL OF MODERATE
RAINFALL. BRIEF IFR REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN MODERATE
SHOWERS. CURRENT VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY 18Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: GUSTY WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE AND COULD BE
STRONGER THAN FORECAST AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS FRIDAY.
FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES FRIDAY MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 01/09/26
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR IS AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN AREAS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN. IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...ARJ
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