309
FXUS61 KRLX 090659
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
159 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY. COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY SHOWERS TODAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
BRINGS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLDER
WITH SOME SNOW TO START THE NEW WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 155 AM FRIDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* WARM FRONT BRINGS BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS TODAY.
* FAST-MOVING GUSTY SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
A WARM FRONT, WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
SE OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING, SPREADING FEW LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS CLOSELY BEHIND,
EXPECTED TO CROSS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY
STRONGER CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE COLD FRONT, ALTHOUGH
THE PROBABILITY OF LIGHTNING REMAINS LOW.
MODEL EVALUATION SHOWS H850 SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 50–60
KNOTS UNDER WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, SWITCHING FROM
THE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH
GUSTS OF 20–30 MPH POSSIBLE. STRONGER GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FORECAST WIND GUSTS WERE ADJUSTED TOWARD
THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE THROUGH THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SETUP. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ELEVATE
PWATS TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES (+3SD FROM CLIMATOLOGY) WITH
DEWPOINTS REACHING THE UPPER 50S. THESE FACTORS CREATE A HIGH
PROBABILITY FOR FAST-MOVING, GUSTY SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON, WHEN A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
THERE IS A 70% PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST 0.25" OF RAIN AREAWIDE BY
00Z SATURDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS AND SUBSIDING WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A TRANQUIL NIGHT AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK:
HIGHS: MID TO UPPER 60S (LOWLANDS), UPPER 40S (HIGHER ELEVATIONS).
LOWS: GENERALLY IN THE 40S; LOWER 50S IN EXTREME SE WEST VIRGINIA
AND SW VIRGINIA.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 155 AM FRIDAY...
A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER TN/KY SATURDAY
MORNING, TRACKING NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM BRINGS A COLD FRONT PASSING ON SATURDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION
TARGETING THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA, TO INCLUDE THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER, A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO
MOVE BEHIND THIS LATER COLD FRONT AND PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR INTO
OUR AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL
INCREASE FORCING OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TO SUSTAIN
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW MAY PRODUCE LAKE ENHANCE SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS INCLUDING UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS WITH THE PREVIOUS EVENT. SO, EXPECT A
SLOWER MOTION WITH SHOWERS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING 0.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA AND SOUTHERN WV BY 7 PM
SATURDAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WILL RANGE FROM
A HALF INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO, TO AROUND AN INCH ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, TO UP TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA.
HIGHS FOR SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE MID 40S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. A DRASTIC
DROP IN TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, TAKING
LOWS INTO THE LOW 30S AREAWIDE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 155 AM FRIDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS STRONGLY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
WEST VIRGINIA, MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
TUESDAY. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
ON MONDAY, MODELS INDICATE SLIGHT INTENSITY DIFFERENCES REGARDING A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBSIDENCE,
NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE AT THIS TIME.
CONFIDENCE DECREASES TOWARD MID-WEEK AS A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE REMAINS NOTABLE MODEL DIVERGENCE
CONCERNING THE TIMING AND DEPTH OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT AFFECTS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY, THE CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE WILL
REFINE DETAILS REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPES AND ACCUMULATIONS AS
MODEL GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...
STRONG SOUTHWEST GUSTY WINDS OF 20–30 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS MOST SITES TODAY, SUBSIDING LATER WHILE VEERING FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. STRONGER WINDS OF 45–50
KNOTS ALOFT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS)
ACROSS MOST TERMINALS FROM NOW THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRENGTHENED OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE SLACKENING TO LIGHT OR MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW LATE FRIDAY. A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE COLD FRONT, VEERING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST BY
00Z–02Z SATURDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ARRIVAL OF MODERATE
RAINFALL. BRIEF IFR REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN MODERATE
SHOWERS. CURRENT VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY 18Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: GUSTY WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE AND COULD BE
STRONGER THAN FORECAST AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS FRIDAY.
FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES FRIDAY MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 01/09/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EST 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L M H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR IS AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN AREAS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN. IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ
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