197
FXUS61 KRLX 091635
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1135 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY SHOWERS TODAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
BRINGS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1130 AM FRIDAY...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, WHICH
WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY WILL PREVENT SEVERE WEATHER FROM
OCCURRING ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. A LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT, AND BEHIND IT WILL BE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SATURDAY, WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER
SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
DAY SATURDAY, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE ACTUALLY TRENDED DOWNWARD
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, WHICH IS GOOD NEWS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO TO AROUND A HALF INCH ACROSS CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL
STILL SEE THE MOST RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH AMOUNTS
AROUND ONE INCH.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1130 AM FRIDAY...
THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE AREA BY
00Z SUNDAY, AND BEHIND IT WILL BE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND
FALLING TEMPERATURES. WINTER WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE LOWLANDS.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
AMIDST A POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER
THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES IN NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA, AND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENT. WINDS
WILL GUST 40-50 MPH OR GREATER OVER THE RIDGES BEGINNING AT 12Z
SUNDAY, LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND THE FOOTHILLS OF THE MOUNTAINS,
WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY, BUT LIKELY NOT ADVISORY LEVEL.
WITH THE FRESH BATCH OF COLD AIR IN PLACE SUNDAY, LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS MAY IMPACT SOME OF THE LOWLANDS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATION TO THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW OF THESE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY, ACCORDING TO RECENT HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS, SO VISIBILITY MAY BE IMPACTED FOR TRAVELERS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1130 AM FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW
WEDNESDAY AND POTENTIAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY. THERE'S
STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF
THIS LOW. THEREFORE, WE WON'T GO INTO ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS AT
THIS TIME. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...
STRONG SOUTHWEST GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS MOST SITES TODAY, SUBSIDING LATER WHILE VEERING FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. STRONGER WINDS OF 45 TO 50
KNOTS ALOFT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) ACROSS
MOST TERMINALS FROM NOW THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT
WILL REMAIN STRENGTHENED OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLACKENING TO LIGHT OR MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LATE FRIDAY. A
SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT, VEERING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST BY 00Z TO 02Z SATURDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ARRIVAL OF MODERATE
RAINFALL. BRIEF IFR REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN MODERATE
SHOWERS. CURRENT VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY 18Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: GUSTY WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE AND COULD BE
STRONGER THAN FORECAST AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS FRIDAY.
FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES FRIDAY MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M H M H M M H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H L H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M H M M M M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H M H M M M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H M M M
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES SATURDAY IN AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...ARJ
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