163
FXUS61 KRLX 100020
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
720 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE RIDES ALONG IT, BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 720 PM FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING WITH A THIN
LINE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS, WAS LOSING ITS LUSTER AS FAR AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND, FOR THAT MATTER,
THE SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL CROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS TONIGHT,
BEFORE STALLING IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
AS OF 1130 AM FRIDAY...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, WHICH
WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY WILL PREVENT SEVERE WEATHER FROM
OCCURRING ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. A LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT, AND BEHIND IT WILL BE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SATURDAY, WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER
SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
DAY SATURDAY, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE ACTUALLY TRENDED DOWNWARD
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, WHICH IS GOOD NEWS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO TO AROUND A HALF INCH ACROSS CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL
STILL SEE THE MOST RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH AMOUNTS
AROUND ONE INCH.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1130 AM FRIDAY...
THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE AREA BY
00Z SUNDAY, AND BEHIND IT WILL BE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND
FALLING TEMPERATURES. WINTER WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE LOWLANDS.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
AMIDST A POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER
THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES IN NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA, AND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENT. WINDS
WILL GUST 40-50 MPH OR GREATER OVER THE RIDGES BEGINNING AT 12Z
SUNDAY, LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND THE FOOTHILLS OF THE MOUNTAINS,
WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY, BUT LIKELY NOT ADVISORY LEVEL.
WITH THE FRESH BATCH OF COLD AIR IN PLACE SUNDAY, LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS MAY IMPACT SOME OF THE LOWLANDS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATION TO THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW OF THESE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY, ACCORDING TO RECENT HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS, SO VISIBILITY MAY BE IMPACTED FOR TRAVELERS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1130 AM FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW
WEDNESDAY AND POTENTIAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY. THERE'S
STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF
THIS LOW. THEREFORE, WE WON'T GO INTO ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS AT
THIS TIME. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 720 PM FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH THE LOWLANDS TONIGHT WILL
MAINTAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THERE. AS THE FRONT
STALLS NEAR THEW MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS WILL DROP BACK TO
MVFR AT EKN WHILE HOLDING IN THE IFR TO LOW MVFR RANGE AT BKW.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT ON SATURDAY
WILL MAKE FOR A RAINY DAY, WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO IFR AT TIMES. IFR CEILINGS AT BKW SATURDAY WILL
PERSIST AT LEAST UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
SOMEWHAT GUSTY SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHIFTING
TO SOMEWHAT GUSTY NORTHWEST BEHIND IT TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH AND
VEER TO NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST/LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, AND THEN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY BECOMING A
BIT GUSTY AT BKW LATE. SURFACE FLOW ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND BECOME A BIT GUSTY LATE SATURDAY, AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES.
LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT WILL
BECOME LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AND
THEN MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AS
THE FRONT ALOFT ARRIVES THERE LATE SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES MAY VARY IN AND
OUT OF RAIN.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
EST 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H L H H M M H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY L M H H H M M L M H M L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M H M H H M L H L H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR IS POSSIBLE POSSIBLE IN STRATUS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT, AND IN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/26
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...TRM
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