884
FXUS61 KRLX 101737
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1237 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT THIS EVENING
SPREAD NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS TODAY. MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY. MOSTLY DRY BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 105 AM SATURDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, TRACKING NORTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND WV
TODAY, WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT, SPREADING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE SHOWS
HIGH PROBABILITY FOR UNSEASONABLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER, 24
HOUR RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE PROJECTED TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.75
INCHES. EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL STILL SEE THE MOST RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM
WITH AMOUNTS AROUND ONE INCH. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSES
TONIGHT, BRINGING STRENGTHENING WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIRMASS BY
SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON MAY REACH THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS,
RANGING INTO THE MID 40S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL PLUMMET
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT GENERALLY INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S, RANGING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 105 AM SATURDAY...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY PROVIDING MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING. WITH SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE, AND MOISTURE WITHIN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE, EVEN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OHIO
TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS CENTRAL WV. GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UP TO 4 INCHES OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING.
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SQUALLS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SUNDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES IN NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA,
WHERE WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENT.
WINDS AND SNOW MAY COMBINE TO REDUCE VISIBILITY IMPACTING TRAVELERS.
WINDS WILL GUST 40-50 MPH OR GREATER OVER THE RIDGES BEGINNING AT
12Z SUNDAY, LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND THE FOOTHILLS OF THE MOUNTAINS,
WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY, BUT LIKELY NOT ADVISORY LEVEL.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL MONDAY AND TUESDAY, PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS. IT WILL REMAIN CHILLY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 105 AM SATURDAY...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL PROBABLY BRING ROUNDS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER WEDNESDAY AND
POTENTIAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY. THERE'S STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THIS LOW. THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...
A PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DISTRIBUTE PRECIPITATION
AND OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, RAIN SHOWERS WERE WRAPPING UP ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH AN APPROACHING DRY SLOT ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. THE
NEXT ROUND OF MOISTURE DASHES IN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING, WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES YIELDING A TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW. CEILING AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND AN UPTICK IN WINDS
WILL TAKE SHAPE OVERNIGHT WITH THIS LATEST ROUND OF SHOWERS, AND
WILL ROUND OUT THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO NEAR 25 TO 30KTS
BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES MAY VARY IN AND
OUT OF RAIN, FOLLOWED BY SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L H H L H H L H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L H H H M L L H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M L H M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR IS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...05
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