834
FXUS61 KRLX 110543
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1243 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY
SNOW. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. STRONG
WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE RIDGES. DRY TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 730 PM SATURDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* THE SNOW COVERAGE FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.
* THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS SUNDAY BEGINS EARLY IN THE
MORNING.
* THE KEY POINTS ITERATED IN THE INITIAL NEAR TERM DISCUSSION
OTHERWISE REMAIN VALID.
RAISED POPS FOR SUNDAY, MAINLY IN THE MORNING, BASED ON HIGHER
CENTRAL GUIDANCE, THE HRRR AND THE NAMNEST. AN AUTO-CONVECTIVE
MIXED LAYER AMID A DEEP MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CROSSING MIDDAY DRIVES THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER TO 4 TO 5 OVER
A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MIDDAY.
AN INITIAL NORTH-NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS RAKES ACROSS THE AREA FIRST THING IN THE
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAAST ORIENTED
BANDED OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS THAT RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS, ALONG WITH BRIEF BUT SHARP REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS, THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.
STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR SUNDAY, STARTING EARLY AND ENDING LATE
IN THE EVENING, RANGE 2 TO 6 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO A
COATING TO UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE LOWLANDS.
TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND
INTO THE 20S IN TH MOUNTAINS BY DAWN SUNDAY, AND THEN LEVEL OFF
THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING DURING HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS.
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* AN OVERNIGHT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL DRIVE COLDER AIR AND
LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE DOWN INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
* POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
* A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
* A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST POCAHONTAS
AND SOUTHEAST RANDOLPH COUNTIES DUE TO STRONG WIND GUSTS
NEARING 55 MPH ON SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE UP
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE BULK OF TODAY'S RAIN HAS NOW PUSHED OFF
ONTO THE EASTWARD SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS
LEAVES BEHIND BLANKETED OVERCAST SKIES WITH EMBEDDED DRIZZLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, KEEPING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
BELOW CENTRAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS. SOME CLEARING IS PRESENT
BACK IN INDIANA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ANY SUNSHINE WILL
REVEAL ITSELF BEFORE DUSK TODAY.
THE AREA FINDS ITSELF IN A DRY SLOT CURRENTLY, BUT LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS GROWING IN COVERAGE OFF TO OUR WEST IN CENTRAL OHIO.
THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN
SLIDING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, AND COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR BEFORE
STRONGER MOISTURE SURGES DOWN OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE, COUPLED WITH PLUNGING TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PRESSING IN BEFORE DAYBREAK WILL TRANSITION OVER
TO SNOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HI-RES CAMS
INSINUATES A STEALTH BAND OF SNOW FOLLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING EASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THAT MAY WARRANT AN SPS FOR ANY EARLY MORNING
COMMUTERS.
BEHIND THIS LINE, MODEL REFLECTIVITY DENOTES POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SQUALLS SETTING UP ALONG THE I-64 AND I-79 CORRIDORS. SNOW
SQUALL PARAMETERS WITH THE LATEST FORECAST CYCLE SHOWS A STRONG
SIGNAL FOR THIS SETUP FROM 11 AM INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON,
BEFORE SNOW POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE UPSLOPE DRIVEN.
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS H85 STREAMLINES REMAIN PROPAGATED OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. EVENT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS QUICK HITTING
EVENT IS ANTICIPATED TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ON
THE HIGHER RIDGETOPS. WITH THAT IN MIND, A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR PARTS OF OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
IN ADDITION TO THE ANTICIPATED WINTER WEATHER, THIS PASSING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL YIELD A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
MUCH OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS A RESULT, AN UPTICK IN WIND
GUSTS WILL TAKE SHAPE AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS
HOWLING AS STRONG AS 55 MPH IN SOME SPOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE
VALID FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ACROSS
NORTHWEST POCAHONTAS AND SOUTHEAST POCAHONTAS COUNTIES, WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA, GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30
MILES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWLANDS AND 30 TO 40
MILES PER HOUR ALONG THE FOOTHILLS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* WIND AND WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF THE
WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY MORNING.
* HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEK.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, WITH ONGOING HEADLINES TO CAPTURE ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETERS WILL BE LOWERING HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SUNDAY, SQUEEZING OUT THE FINAL FEW HOURS OF SNOW BEFORE FLOW
BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS,
SNOW POTENTIAL GRADUALLY DROPS OFF AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING
AND DRYING UP ALTOGETHER BY DAWN MONDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL END IN RESPONSE TO THE END OF ACCUMULATING SNOW.
WINDS WILL ALSO TAPER DOWN IN A SIMILAR FASHION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. WHILE BEGINNING THE FORECAST PERIOD
ELEVATED TO NEAR 45 TO 55 KTS ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES, A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVERNIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTS TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL OBTAIN
INFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN ADVERTISE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER,
WARMING TEMPERATURES, AND THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE BEFORE THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE ARRIVES AROUND MIDWEEK.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...
RENEWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO MAKE A RETURN AROUND
MIDWEEK WITH A PASSING CLIPPER SYSTEM SCOOTING BY TO THE NORTH.
A QUICK SUCCESSION OF SURFACE COLD FRONTS ACCOMPANYING THIS
SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE A RAIN/SNOW COMBINATION BEGINNING ON
WEDNESDAY AND PROCEEDING ONWARD INTO THURSDAY, WHERE THE
SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL YIELD A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW TO
ROUND OUT THIS DISTURBANCE. WHILE STILL FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST, THIS WILL BE SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1240 AM SUNDAY...
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AT LEAST THROUGH 10Z, FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF A
COLD FRONT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS. ACROSS THE LOWLAND SITES,
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER WESTERLY GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE
ARRIVAL OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ARRIVE TO SE OH AFTER 10Z, SPREADING
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE PASSAGE, AND BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY. HAVE
CODED THIS IN MOST TAF TIMING THE ONSET USING CAMS AND TIME OF
ARRIVAL TOOLS. EXPECT SUDDEN DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ALONG THIS FRONT. PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR UNDER HEAVY SNOW COULD
PRODUCE SUDDEN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WITHIN BANDS.
CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR AND VISIBILITY VFR THROUGHOUT
THE DAY SUNDAY OUTSIDE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS. THE MVFR CEILINGS
MAY BREAK OR LIFT AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY.
GUSTY WEST SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME STRONGER ON SUNDAY, WITH
GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS TONIGHT BEFORE A LULL, AND EVEN BACKING
OVERNIGHT, BEFORE VEERING AGAIN WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS ON
SUNDAY, EXCEPT 30 TO 35 KTS AT BKW. MODERATE TO STRONG WEST FLOW
ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST OVERNIGHT, AND
THEN MODERATE TO STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES MAY VARY IN AND
OUT OF RAIN TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY SNOW SUNDAY STARTING EARLY.
GUSTY WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 01/11/26
UTC 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
EST 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H L L M M H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR IS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
MONDAY FOR WVZ520-522-523-526.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...05/TRM
NEAR TERM...05/TRM
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ARJ
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