444
FXUS61 KRLX 111304
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
804 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY
SNOW. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. STRONG
WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE RIDGES. DRY TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 800 AM SUNDAY...
MODIFIED POPS THIS MORNING AS SNOW SHOWERS VENTURE INTO THE
AREA. ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE
FORECAST AREA NOT UNDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY FOR
BRIEF WINTRY WEATHER CAUSED BY PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
SNOW SQUALLS.
AS OF 135 AM SUNDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
* A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT.
* A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST POCAHONTAS AND
SOUTHEAST RANDOLPH COUNTIES DUE TO STRONG WIND GUSTS NEARING 55 MPH.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE INITIAL COLD FRONT, MOST RAIN SHOWERS
ENDED OVERNIGHT AS THEY MOVED EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, A
POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHEAST OHIO ARRIVING AROUND 7 AM. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL FORCING,
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES, AND MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL ENHANCE PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FORECAST MODELS REMAIN IN HIGH AGREEMENT
REGARDING A STRONG SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER SIGNAL ARRIVING WITH THIS
FRONT. THIS HIGHLIGHTS THE WESTERN SECTIONS THROUGH 15Z BEFORE THE
SETUP TRANSITIONS TO A MORE UPSLOPE-DRIVEN EVENT.
PRIMARY IMPACTS: SNOW SQUALLS.
HEAVY SNOW BANDS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL EXPECTED. RAPID DROPS IN TEMPERATURE, SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY UNDER HEAVY SNOW, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN SNOW
BANDS TODAY. THE SNOW SQUALL THREAT WILL MIGRATE FROM THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS THROUGH 15Z, SPREADING INTO THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE SNOW WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
EXPECTED SNOW TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: SE OHIO 0.5 TO 1 INCH, WV
AND SOUTHWEST VA 1 TO 2 INCHES, CENTRAL MOUNTAINS 2 TO 4 INCHES, AND
THE NORTHEAST HIGHER ELEVATIONS 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW.
AS A RESULT, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHWEST POCAHONTAS, SOUTHEAST RANDOLPH, SOUTHEAST WEBSTER, AND
SOUTHEAST NICHOLAS COUNTIES FROM 7 AM TODAY UNTIL 1 AM MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
WHERE GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION (CAA) WILL CAUSE H850 TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE
FROM MINUS 4C TO MINUS 13C BY 15Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND THIS AFTERNOON; TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MAY FALL DURING THE DAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE, WITH TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 135 AM SUNDAY...
KEY POINT:
* HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS STARTING OF
THE NEW WEEK.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TAPPER OFF ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY
MONDAY MORNING. THEN, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
MS VALLEY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, EXTENDING INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
WV, PROVIDING DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND WEAKER FLOW.
A SHORT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY, WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE
LOWER 40S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO SUB
FREEZING VALUES UNDER CLEAR SKIES. LOWS ON TUESDAY WILL NOT BE
AS COLD AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S LOWLANDS,
RANGING INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 135 AM SUNDAY...
PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE LIQUID PRECIPITATION UNDER MILD
TEMPERATURES. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS STRUGGLE TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE STILL FAR
OUT IN THE FORECAST, THIS WILL BE SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 545 AM SUNDAY...
REINFORCING COLD FRONT BRING PERIODS OF SNOW AND SNOW SQUALLS TODAY.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME IFR/LIFR DURING HEAVY SNOW.
SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE PASSAGE, AND BEHIND THE
FRONT TODAY. HAVE CODED THIS IN MOST TAF WITH TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS,
TIMING THE ONSET USING CAMS AND TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOLS. EXPECT SUDDEN
DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS ALONG THIS FRONT. PERIODS OF
IFR/LIFR UNDER HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD PRODUCE SUDDEN
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WITHIN BANDS.
CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR AND VISIBILITY VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY
OUTSIDE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS. THE MVFR CEILINGS MAY BREAK OR LIFT AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY NEAR THE COLD FRONT, AND THEN
VEER FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, AND FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS, MOST OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS TO INCLUDE
BKW, AND UP TO 48 KNOTS ALONG THE HIGHER PEAKS OF OUR NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. WINDS ALOFT BECOMING MODERATE TO STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES MAY VARY IN AND
OUT OF SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EST 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H L M M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M L L M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M H H L M M M H M
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H M M M H H H H L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ520-522-
523-526.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...05/ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ
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