269
FXUS61 KRLX 120526
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1226 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END OVERNIGHT. DRY
TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK AMID BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. A
MIDWEEK SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 1015 PM SUNDAY...
WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS HAVE STEADILY RELAXED
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS EVENING, WHILE LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS / FLURRIES THERE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LITTLE TO
NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION; THEREFORE, THE WIND ADVISORY AND
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED EARLY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 530 PM SUNDAY...
SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE CONTINUES TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS
BROAD SCALE SYNOPTIC ASCENT HAS DIMINISHED AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS HAS QUICKLY SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING, WITH A
TRANSITION TO MORE TYPICAL LAKE ENHANCED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AT
PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED, HOWEVER, AS LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS
QUICKLY BACKING AMID WARMING ALOFT, RESULTING IN UPSTREAM
LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE QUICKLY BEING CUTOFF. GIVEN SUCH,
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, WITH MORE/LESS FLURRIES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WV LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS FURTHER
SOUTH, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. UP TO AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2" IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM. THE WIND ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 1 AM FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF POCAHONTAS/RANDOLPH
COUNTIES, WHERE SOME BLOWING SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AND
CONTINUES TO REMAIN POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOW/MID 20S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH TEENS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. MINOR UPDATES HAVE BEEN MADE TO TEMPERATURES,
WIND GUSTS, AND POPS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
AS OF 140 PM SUNDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
FOR REMAINING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
* WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST POCAHONTAS AND SOUTHEAST RANDOLPH
COUNTIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH.
* HIGH PRESSURE ADVERTISES DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
RADAR TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON DEPICT PASSING SNOW SHOWERS GROWING
MORE CONFINED TO THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA.
AFTER A MORNING OF SNOW SQUALLS ENCOMPASSING THE BULK OF THE
FORECAST AREA, MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS OUR SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER
IS NOW ALIGNED ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES CUT OFF DUE TO WIND FLOW
BACKING OUT OF THE WEST TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES REMAINS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES OF OUR NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM TONIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT DRAPED THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE UP STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IS ANTICIPATED TO EASE OVERNIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES. GUSTS OF UP TO 55MPH ARE STILL FORECAST FOR
TODAY, WITH THE HIGHEST VALUE RECORDED SO FAR TODAY OF AROUND
36MPH UP NEAR SNOWSHOE. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
1 AM TONIGHT TO CAPTURE THE TIMEFRAME UNTIL THESE HOWLING WINDS
BEGIN TO DIMINISH.
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL OBTAIN
ENOUGH INFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO ENFORCE THE RETURN OF
DRY WEATHER. AFTER SQUEEZING OUT SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGES AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY MORNING,
WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THE ROOST FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 140 PM SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOURAGE DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
A SYSTEM DROPS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST, SUNSHINE AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY, WITH MANY SPOTS IN
THE LOWLANDS BRANCHING OUT INTO THE LOW 50S.
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ENCROACHES TUESDAY EVENING AND WILL
REINTRODUCE PRECIPITATION, IN THE FORM OF RAIN, TO OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES BEFORE SAILING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN RIDGES WILL SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX TRANSPIRING WITH
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THE BULK OF THE MIDWEEK PRECIPITATION
IN THE LOWLANDS WILL FALL AS RAIN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 140 PM SUNDAY...
KEY POINT:
* RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO ACCUMULATIONS.
THE FORECAST PERIOD OPENS UP WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONING OVER TO A WINTRY WEATHER MIX LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING ALL SNOW FOR THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING OVERHEAD AROUND THIS TIME WILL AMPLIFY SHOWER
POTENTIAL AND ALREADY SEE A DECENT SIGNAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA HEADING INTO THURSDAY. WHILE SOME
AGREEMENT IS APPEARING AMONGST GLOBAL MODELS FOR THIS SET UP,
STILL THINK FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES WILL HELP SOLIDIFY TIMING
AND OVERALL SNOW AMOUNT MESSAGING, BUT FOR NOW WILL REMAIN
HIGHLIGHTING THIS NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR WINTER WEATHER.
SHOWER CHANCES WRAP UP BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK UNDER THE
GUISE OF TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS
FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1225 AM MONDAY...
RADAR AND WEBCAMS SUGGEST SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OR ENDED
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGES AND METARS DEPICT AN MVFR (25000 FEET) LOW
STRATUS DECK BLANKETING THE ENTIRE AREA EXTENDING WEST INTO
CENTRAL OH. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THESE CLOUDS ERODING FROM THE
WEST AS THEY MOVE EAST. EXPECT CLEARING BEHIND THE BACK EDGE OF
CLOUDS TO REACH HTS BY 12Z, AND GRADUALLY REACH CRW AND PKB BY
15Z. LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS WILL AFFECT BKW AND EKN THROUGH AT
LEAST 16Z MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THEN PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME SOUTHWEST MONDAY. BREEZES
OF 15-20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER LONGER ON MONDAY
MORNING THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 01/12/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H M M H M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H M M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
SNOW SHOWERS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...05/GW
NEAR TERM...05/GW
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ARJ
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