803
FXUS61 KRLX 120644
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
144 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END OVERNIGHT. DRY
TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK AMID BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. A
MIDWEEK SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 140 AM MONDAY...
KEY POINT:
* CHILLY AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM TEXAS, NORTHEAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND WV, COMBINED WITH SEMI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, WILL
MAINTAIN DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPECT A CHILLY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS, AND THE LOWER 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. A COLD NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND THE
LOWER 20S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 140 AM MONDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
* RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO
ACCUMULATIONS, PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
ON TUESDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD, MAINTAINING
ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS UNDER LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW. A SLIGHT WARM UP IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 50S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, AND THE
LOWER 40S IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S FOR THE
LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST, REINTRODUCING PRECIPITATION, INITIALLY AS RAIN TO OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE A HIGH POPS, LOW QPF EVENT, WHILE
THE PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION IS HIGH, RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HALF AN INCH.
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGES WILL
SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THE BULK OF THE MIDWEEK
PRECIPITATION IN THE LOWLANDS WILL FALL AS RAIN.
STRONG CAA AT H850 ARRIVES OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
TRANSITIONING ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION INTO SNOW. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXITS NORTHEAST, NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION. THIS SETUP WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS TO OUR AREA UNDER NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER AREAS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE
SNOW.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 140 AM MONDAY...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE UNDER NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AS THE GREAT LAKES MOISTURE CONNECTION PERSISTS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY PROVIDING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA, SPREADING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TEMPORARILY TAPER OFF LATE FRIDAY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE ACTIVE WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1225 AM MONDAY...
RADAR AND WEBCAMS SUGGEST SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OR ENDED
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGES AND METARS DEPICT AN MVFR (25000 FEET) LOW
STRATUS DECK BLANKETING THE ENTIRE AREA EXTENDING WEST INTO
CENTRAL OH. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THESE CLOUDS ERODING FROM THE
WEST AS THEY MOVE EAST. EXPECT CLEARING BEHIND THE BACK EDGE OF
CLOUDS TO REACH HTS BY 12Z, AND GRADUALLY REACH CRW AND PKB BY
15Z. LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS WILL AFFECT BKW AND EKN THROUGH AT
LEAST 16Z MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THEN PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME SOUTHWEST MONDAY. BREEZES
OF 15-20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER LONGER ON MONDAY
MORNING THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 01/12/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H M M H M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H M M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
SNOW SHOWERS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ
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