239
FXUS61 KRLX 121711
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1211 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK AMID BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. A
MIDWEEK SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1210 PM MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN U.S. WILL NUDGE NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION TODAY, WITH A GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST, AND DRY CONDITIONS. STILL A LITTLE GUSTY AT TIMES
TODAY PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH, BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY START
TO DECREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS, ONLY TO RAMP BACK UP
AGAIN ON TUESDAY, OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. THIS WILL
SPREAD SOME CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY, AND WARMER, WITH INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1210 PM MONDAY...
PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE AREA IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL EVENTUALLY CARVE
OUT A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BY LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SPREAD
RAIN INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH COLDER
AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES SAGS SOUTHWARD, EVENTUALLY CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW, FIRST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH SNOW
EXPECTED AREA WIDE BY THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED AREA WIDE, BY THE TIME IT'S COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS, THE BULK OF FORCING AND FRONT SHOULD BE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA. SNOW SHOULD START OUT AS A HEAVIER/WET SNOW,
GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A FLUFFIER, LIGHTER SNOW AS WE PROGRESS
INTO LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WITH AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT, AND MOISTURE
FETCH SETTING UP OFF THE GREAT LAKES. THINKING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY IN MANY SPOTS, BUT, AT THIS POINT, DON'T
HAVE THE CONFIDENCE FOR WARNINGS BEING MET, AND WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW, THE MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO
THE REGION, COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS FROM TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND CAA, WILL RESULT IN QUITE A SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM. WIND CHILLS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, AND SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WITH
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1210 PM MONDAY...
LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION, BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS. ANOTHER
LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND,
CARVING OUT ANOTHER TROUGH, AND PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1210 PM MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE TEENS THROUGH 22Z, WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN
AFTER 16-18Z TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER LONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
SNOW SHOWERS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...SL
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