374
FXUS61 KRLX 130048
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
748 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AMID HIGH PRESSURE. A MIDWEEK SYSTEM
BRINGS RAIN ON WEDNESDAY THAT CHANGES OVER TO SNOW ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...
A WEAK UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A BIT OF
HIGH CLOUD, CURRENTLY JUST UPSTREAM OF THE CWA ACROSS THE CENTRAL
OHIO VALLEY. THE ONLY UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WAS TO
TWEAK DOWN OVERNIGHT LOWS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS,
GIVEN DEW POINTS IN THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A
BIT OF MOVEMENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY
FURTHER NORTH/WEST, BUT LOCATIONS THAT ARE ABLE TO DECOUPLE
SHOULD QUICKLY TUMBLE INTO THE 20S, AS HAS BEEN ALREADY NOTED IN
QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TEENS
TO MID 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH 20S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. WIND
GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON VIA DIURNAL
MIXING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 1210 PM MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN U.S. WILL NUDGE NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION TODAY, WITH A GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST, AND DRY CONDITIONS. STILL A LITTLE GUSTY AT TIMES
TODAY PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH, BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY START
TO DECREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS, ONLY TO RAMP BACK UP
AGAIN ON TUESDAY, OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. THIS WILL
SPREAD SOME CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY, AND WARMER, WITH INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1210 PM MONDAY...
PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE AREA IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL EVENTUALLY CARVE
OUT A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BY LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SPREAD
RAIN INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH COLDER
AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES SAGS SOUTHWARD, EVENTUALLY CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW, FIRST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH SNOW
EXPECTED AREA WIDE BY THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED AREA WIDE, BY THE TIME IT'S COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS, THE BULK OF FORCING AND FRONT SHOULD BE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA. SNOW SHOULD START OUT AS A HEAVIER/WET SNOW,
GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A FLUFFIER, LIGHTER SNOW AS WE PROGRESS
INTO LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WITH AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT, AND MOISTURE
FETCH SETTING UP OFF THE GREAT LAKES. THINKING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY IN MANY SPOTS, BUT, AT THIS POINT, DON'T
HAVE THE CONFIDENCE FOR WARNINGS BEING MET, AND WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW, THE MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO
THE REGION, COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS FROM TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND CAA, WILL RESULT IN QUITE A SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM. WIND CHILLS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, AND SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WITH
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1210 PM MONDAY...
LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION, BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS. ANOTHER
LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND,
CARVING OUT ANOTHER TROUGH, AND PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 740 PM MONDAY...
DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD (UNTIL
00Z WEDNESDAY) AMID SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. CALM TO LIGHT
SSW FLOW OVERNIGHT, WITH STRENGTHENING SSW/SW FLOW ON TUESDAY.
GUSTS OF 15-25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE BEGINNING LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
LOW STRATUS AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS,
AND ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND IN ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SL/GW
NEAR TERM...SL/GW
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...GW
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