434
FXUS61 KRLX 100045
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK. LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
REMAIN LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN APPROXIMATELY A MONTH ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, PROMOTING A MAINLY ORDERLY MELT OF THE
EXISTING SNOWPACK AND RIVER ICE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
2.) LIGHT RAIN TOMORROW EVENING TRANSITIONS TO LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED
PRIMARILY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
3.) A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND, LIKELY IN THE FORM OF
A WINTRY MIX.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS SETUP HAS ESTABLISHED SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
50S FOR CHARLESTON AND THE METRO VALLEY, AND MID TO UPPER 50S
FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. THESE VALUES
REPRESENT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SEEN SINCE EARLY JANUARY.
THIS WARMING WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL MELTING OF THE SNOW AND
ICE PACK. CURRENT SNOWPACK HOLDS BETWEEN 0.33 AND 1.00 INCH OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT WATER. GIVEN THE LACK OF HEAVY RAINFALL DURING
THE PEAK OF THE MELT, THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE AN ORDERLY PROCESS
WITH MINIMAL FLOODING CONCERNS. ADDITIONALLY, WARMER WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP RIVER ICE ON SLOWER-MOVING
BASINS LIKE THE LITTLE KANAWHA AND MUSKINGUM. WHILE LOCALIZED
ICE JAMS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT, THE ABSENCE OF
SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF COINCIDENT WITH THE BREAKUP SUGGESTS THE
OVERALL RISK REMAINS ON THE LOWER SIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOISTURE RETURN IS RELATIVELY MEAGER, BUT FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO SQUEEZE OUT LIGHT MEASURABLE RAINFALL,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AND THE METRO VALLEY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A COOLER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO
THE AREA ON NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS SHIFT IN PARCEL
TRAJECTORIES WILL OPEN UP FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONSEQUENTLY, RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS, WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL ENHANCE LAKE-
MOISTURE. CENTRAL GUIDANCE DID NOT REALLY REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL
WITH NEAR ZERO POPS AND HAVE INCREASED THESE IN COLLABORATION
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A MORE ROBUST SYNOPTIC SYSTEM FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A DEEP TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EJECT FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY, INDUCING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO
OUR WEST. SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF IS
EXPECTED AS THE AREA RESIDES WITHIN THE SYSTEM'S WARM SECTOR.
POPS PEAK BETWEEN 60 AND 75 PERCENT SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES REMAINING
WELL ABOVE FREEZING, RAIN IS THE PRIMARY EXPECTED PRECIPITATION
TYPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH MAINLY SNOW OR A
MIX IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL WOULD FALL SOUTHWEST AND EAST OF US, BUT WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS WITH SOILS LIKELY STILL QUITE
MOIST FROM THE MELTING OF THE ICE AND SNOW PACK ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AMID DRY CONDITIONS.
BKN-OVC MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS AND
MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES, WITH BKN-OVC HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN THEREAFTER.
VFR AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH CIGS
QUICKLY LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AMID INCREASING CLOUD
COVER, WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR (IFR POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTH)
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD (00Z WEDNESDAY). ISO/SCT
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE CENTRAL/NORTH BEGINNING LATE
AFTERNOON. BRIEF MVFR VSBY COULD OCCUR IF ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS
WERE TO DEVELOP.
CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY WILL VEER TO WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZES OF 15-20 KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY BECOME
A CONCERN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A 40-45 KT SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS, BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE, HAS BEEN LEFT
OUT OF THE TAFS FOR THE TIME BEING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH TONIGHT, MEDIUM TUESDAY.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD BRIEFLY OCCUR
ON TUESDAY AT SOME LOCATIONS. TIMING OF MVFR CIGS ON TUESDAY
MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
LOW STRATUS AND/OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...GW
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