182
FXUS61 KRLX 100928
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
428 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR A WINTRY MIX TONIGHT TO WEDNESDAY FOR
A RAIN TO SNOW EVENT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. THE FORECAST HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. A SYSTEM TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND IS NOW LOOKING MORE
ROBUST AND IMPACT WORTHY FOR MUCH RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND
SOME DECENT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) A SNEAK PEAK OF SPRING TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING
WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE WHICH COULD POSE A THREAT TO ICE JAMS AS
MELTING TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
2.) LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING TRANSITIONS TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED PRIMARILY TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH SHOULDNT POSE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE SLICK SPOTS.
3.) A ROBUST SYSTEM IS NOW FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS FORECAST TO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION, LIKELY IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES TODAY TO ABOVE
SEASONABLE WHICH WILL FEEL LIKE SPRING COMPARED TO THE COLD
WEATHER WE HAVE BEEN HAVING HERE. THIS WILL CAUSE A SLOW MELT
PROCESS THAT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER ICE JAMS. THE
SNOWPACK LOSS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE ELEVATED DUE TO THIS
WARMING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY. THERE WILL BE MINOR RUNOFF
INTO STREAM AND RIVERS WHICH SHOULD HAVE LOW IMPACTS AS OF NOW.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY SILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IN CASE OF FASTER MELTING TAKING PLACE OR THE CREATION
OF A RIVER ICE JAM OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK
DOWN TO BELOW SEASONABLE BY MIDWEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND SO THE THREAT DIMINISHES FOR ICE JAMS. THE RIVERS OF
CONCERN ARE THE MUSKINGUM RIVER BETWEEN MCCONNELSVILLE AND
STOCKPORT, THE HOCKING RIVER BETWEEN COOLVILLE AND THE OHIO
RIVER AS WELL AS THE TYGART VALLEY RIVER BELOW DAM AND THE
WESTFORK RIVER AND MIDDLES ISLAND CREEK. THE BEST CASE SCENARIO
WILL BE A SLOW MELT FOR A WELL ORDERLY BREAKUP IN PLACE WITHOUT
THE INCREASE IN FLOW TO PREVENT ICE JAMS FROM OCCURRING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MOISTURE FLUX IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND
WILL LIKELY CAUSE LOW IMPACTFUL QPF TO THE AREA POSSIBLY
SQUEEZING OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT FIRST DUE TO THE
ANOMOUSLY WARMING TREND TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT A
COOLER AIR MASS TO TRAVERSE INTO THE REGION CREATING A SHIFT IN
WINDS TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL AID IN TAPPING
INTO A MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL KEEP SNOW
SHOWERS ON THE TABLE INTO MOST OF WEDNESDAY ALBEIT MAINLY JUST
FLURRIES AS ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOWFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE DUE TO THE SUFFICIENT WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN PLACE FROM THE PREVIOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW COMPONENT
THROUGHOUT TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CONFIDENCE IN MODELS ARE INCREASING ON BRINGING IN A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE AREA BY END OF WEEK AND FOR THE GREATER
PART OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE A QUIET BEFORE THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION. THIS ROBUST SYSTEM IS
A SOUTHERLY STREAM SYSTEM WHICH WILL TAKE A MILLER B TYPE TRACK
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL MAKE A ALL RAIN REGIME
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. THIS COULD BRING A LOT OF RAINFALL TO THE LOWLANDS
WHICH WOULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IF AREAS THAT ARE
PRONE TO FLOODING ARE HIT REPEATEDLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS.
GROUNDS WILL LIKELY BE SATURATED TO ALL THE SNOW MELT IN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS WHICH WILL AID IN LOW LYING AREAS TO BE PRONE TO
MINOR IMPACTS. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
AND KICKS OUT TO THE ATLANTIC HAMMERING IN SOME DECENT QPF TO
THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME DECENT IMPACTS FROM
SNOW AMOUNTS.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD TODAY,
HOWEVER A COLD FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING THROUGH BY TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING SHOWERS IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
AREA WHICH WILL DECREASE CLOUD COVERAGE IN HEIGHT AND CAUSE
MVFR CIGS TO COME TO FRUITION DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE. IFR CIGS
ARE THEN FORECAST TO COME INTO A POSSIBILITY DURING WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS POST FRONTAL STRATUS TAKES PLACE. DURING FRONTAL
PASSAGE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE GUSTY TODAY AND THIS
EVENING, THEREFORE ANY LLWS SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE NEGATED
ALTHOUGH AS THE FRONT EXITS WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL DROP OFF
SUBSTANTIALLY AND THEREFORE LLWS WILL IMPACT THE AREA BY THE
EVENING UNTIL DIMINISHING BY LATE TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR/IFR CIGS MAY VARY FROM THE
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 02/10/26
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EST 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
LOW STRATUS AND/OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
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