842
FXUS61 KRLX 102131
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
431 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
425 PM UPDATE...
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST
HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES OUTPACING THE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH HUNTINGTON AT 68 DEGREES AS OF LAST HOUR. HAVE
INCREASED TEMPERATURES INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND
DELAYED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, DID
INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE KY,
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WV, AND SW VA LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TONIGHT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF A THIN RIBBON OF MODEST BUOYANCY
COINCIDING WITH THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
HERE/THERE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
CHANGED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING BEHIND PASSING
FRONT TONIGHT TO DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) COLD FRONT WITH RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT, TRANSITIONING TO PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE OR A WINTRY MIX.
2.) LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MAY PROVIDE SOAKING RAIN TO PARTS OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
GENERALLY QUITE WARM TODAY UNDER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT, SPREADING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA, CHANGING TO A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY, INCLUDING DRIZZLE, FREEZING
DRIZZLE, AND MAYBE EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. GREATEST
THREAT AREA FOR A WINTRY MIX LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN ZONES, WITH A NON ZERO CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS TONIGHT. FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THIS EVENING/TONIGHT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER HEADLINE ISSUANCE, BUT FOR NOW, WENT WITH
JUST NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, WHERE
BETTER CHANCES/BETTER COVERAGE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY, MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW, ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES FROM FAVORABLE
MOISTURE FETCH, AND WEAK PASSING SHORTWAVE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. AT THIS POINT, NOT ANTICIPATING HEADLINES WITH
THIS FEATURE, HOWEVER, DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT FREEZING DRIZZLE
COULD OCCUR AGAIN. THIS WILL BE FOR FUTURE SHIFTS TO REEXAMINE AND
CONSIDER ANY ADDITIONAL HEADLINES OR CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FOCUS THIS WEEKEND SHIFTS TO A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW THAT WILL SPREAD
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN BOTH
TIMING AND OVERALL SOLUTION CONCERNING THE PATH AND EVOLUTION OF
THIS LOW BETWEEN THE MODELS, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THIS FAR OUT, AND
IT'S POSSIBLE THE BULK OF MOISTURE WILL STAY WELL TO OUR SOUTH, AND
THAT IT WILL BE QUICK HITTING. NEVERTHELESS, WITH RECENT
SNOWPACK/MELTING, AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION, SATURATED SOILS/RUNOFF
WILL BE A CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD, AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.
AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z WHEN WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ALONG WITH -RA, WITH LOCALIZED/AREAS OF IFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE 03Z THROUGH 12Z. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR AFTER 12-15Z WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THE
MOUNTAINS MAY CONTINUE TO HAVE AREAS OF IFR.
IN ADDITION, GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN
THE TEENS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
WILL GENERALLY BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT, BUT BECOME GUSTY AGAIN
AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY.
WITH SURFACE WINDS DECREASING IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT, A PERIOD
OF LLWS IS EXPECTED, GENERALLY 03Z THROUGH 09Z, AND HAVE
INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR/IFR CIGS MAY VARY FROM THE
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L H H H M M
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN -SHSN AND LOW
STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ522-523-525-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SL/GW
AVIATION...SL
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